Keri Russell’s ‘The Diplomat’ Is Likely Destined To Be Netflix’s Next Megahit

Netflix smash hits can be hard to predict. I would argue almost no one could have imagined that some of the biggest successes on the service would be a reprisal of a ‘60s comedy horror character (Wednesday), a graphic portrait of a serial killer (Dahmer), a somewhat bland but watchable spy show (The Night Agent) or a deeply weird Korean deathgame drama (Squid Game).

But I am going to go out on a limb here to predict that I think The Diplomat may fall somewhere in this category, and even after a day, it does seem like the kind of show that should end up being a massive hit for Netflix.

It was very clear that both Keri Russell and real life/TV show husband Matthew Rhys would be hugely sought-after once The Americans wrapped, their incredible Russian spy drama. Rhys went to HBO to start in Perry Mason, the somewhat overlooked but extremely good detective series. Russell has now arrived on Netflix with The Diplomat, which has debuted straight at #1 on the service, a rarity for most series that are not returning seasons of already-popular shows.

Not that this always matters for most Netflix top-performers, but it’s scoring well among critics and audiences. 89% for critics, 86% for audiences on Rotten Tomatoes. A lot better than other big hits (Wednesday – 71%, The Night Agent – 77%, Dahmer – 57%).

The show is instantly accessible. Even thirty seconds of a trailer showing the tough-talking Keri Russell as a diplomat thrust into a global crisis has a wide, wide range of potential viewers. The type that made shows like Homeland, The West Wing and the early seasons of House of Cards into hits (and in fact, it’s from a writer-producer of The West Wing and Homeland).

I’m only a few episodes into it, but it’s very good. You can see the West Wing-style humor infused into it without it being Aaron Sorkin-level over the top. The central mysteries are interesting, the lead performances from Russell and Rufus Sewell are fantastic. All the pieces are in place for this to be a potential monster for Netflix through not just a promising start, but long legs thanks to word of mouth.

Again, it is deeply difficult to predict what will or won’t succeed on Netflix, which often does not line up with what should or shouldn’t. But The Diplomat is another great series, coming off the brilliance of Beef, but one that will likely draw a wider audience than that series, despite even higher critical and audience acclaim. Keep an eye on it.

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