Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Looming Return Raises Lineup Questions For The Sixers

Kelly Oubre Jr. has missed the Philadelphia 76ers’ past 11 games after suffering a rib injury in an alleged hit-and-run, but he appears to be nearing his return to the team.

On Thursday, Shams Charania of The Athletic reported Oubre was “targeting a return to action next week.” He said Oubre could play as soon as the Sixers’ Dec. 6 road game against the Washington Wizards or Dec. 8 home game against the Atlanta Hawks.

“I’m just waiting for medical to tell me he’s ready to go, right?” Sixers head coach Nick Nurse told reporters last week. “I think that’s always the progress of can he go? Is he freely moving? Which I think he is. Can he get into this contact part of it? Not quite all the way there yet, I don’t think, with some sustainability. And then we get to see where he is conditioning-wise at the end of that.”

Whenever Oubre returns, Nurse will have some tricky lineup and rotation decisions to juggle.

Oubre came off the bench for the first three games of the season, but he moved into the starting lineup after the Sixers traded James Harden to the Los Angeles Clippers on Halloween. He averaged 21.0 points per game on 53.6% shooting across his first five appearances, but he cooled off with only 8.3 points per game on 40.0% shooting in his final three games before his absence.

With Oubre sidelined, Nurse moved Nicolas Batum into his starting spot, and Batum has done nothing to give it away. His per-game stats don’t jump off the screen—he’s averaging 6.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game in his 10 appearances with the Sixers—but he’s shooting a sizzling 60.0% overall and 56.38% from three-point range.

Batum might not be piling up counting stats, but the Sixers don’t necessarily need him to, especially when he starts alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. They need low-usage, quick-decision players next to that trio, and Batum fits that description to a T.

“He’s got three points and he’s a plus-25,” Nurse told reporters after the Sixers’ blowout win over the Brooklyn Nets on Nov. 19. “Again, he’s just such a glue guy and a multiple defender and a passer.”

The Sixers would arguably be better off keeping a connector like Batum in their starting lineup and bringing Oubre off the bench, where he could thrive in a super-sub role.

Even after factoring in Patrick Beverley’s offensive eruption over this past week, the Sixers aren’t getting much production out of their reserves this season. They rank last leaguewide in bench scoring with only 24.7 points per game.

That isn’t necessarily a death blow to their championship hopes. Two of the league’s title favorites—the Boston Celtics (25.9 points per game) and Denver Nuggets (28.2 points per game)—aren’t getting much more out of their bench. Then again, the Nuggets and Celtics are largely relying on young, untested players behind their loaded starting units. The Sixers’ bench is far more veteran-heavy than either of theirs.

Oubre is far better equipped than Batum to add some scoring punch to the Sixers’ second units. He could also help with one of their early problem areas: the minutes that Embiid spends on the floor without Maxey.

The Sixers are still outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor and Maxey off, but that’s largely the result of a stifling defense (only 103.2 points per 100 possessions allowed). They’re averaging an anemic 112.0 points per 100 possessions in those minutes, which would rank only 23rd leaguewide.

The Sixers are devoid of reliable ball-handlers outside of Maxey, which leaves Embiid to shoulder a majority of the shot-creation load whenever he’s off the floor. Nurse recently changed his rotation to keep Embiid and Maxey paired together late in the first quarter—the Sixers were routinely hemorrhaging points in those minutes prior to that change—but Maxey is now playing a league-leading 38.4 minutes per game as a result.

Reinserting Oubre into those lineups could help dial back Maxey’s minutes, as he and Embiid were demonstrating impressive two-man chemistry prior to his injuries. Oubre might be the best off-ball cutter on the team, and Embiid has leaned into being a playmaker more than ever before. (He’s averaging a career-high 6.6 assists per game.)

The real question is whether Oubre will be in the Sixers’ closing lineup. Barring injuries or foul trouble, Embiid and Maxey are locks to be starters and closers, but the other four spots likely come down to Batum, Oubre, Harris and De’Anthony Melton. Nurse could stick with the same starting and closing lineup for the sake of consistency, or he could change it up on a game-by-game basis based on matchups.

Melton got off to a brutal start this season, averaging only 8.1 points on 32.5% shooting over his first nine games, which could have put his starting spot in jeopardy. But since erupting for a season-high 30 points against the Indiana Pacers on Nov. 14, Melton has averaged 17.1 points on 44.3% shooting while chipping in 4.6 rebounds, 3.2 three-pointers, 3.1 assists and 1.3 steals. He still struggles to finish through contact around the rim, but his defense and three-point shooting should help him stick in the starting lineup.

Having six starting-caliber players and only five starting spots is a champagne problem for Nurse and the Sixers. They’ll need to figure it out over the next month or two, though, as the answer could dictate what they end up doing at the Feb. 8 trade deadline.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.