Kawhi Leonard Is Back To Superstar Production When The LA Clippers Need It Most

Following their road loss in Utah on Jan. 18, the LA Clippers needed a full reset. They had, once again, fallen under .500 and were in the worst skid of the Ty Lue era by losing nine of their last 11 games. The offense was still in the mud, defensive holes were evident as they struggled to contain ball-handlers at the point of attack, and the constant lineup shuffling (due to player availability) was mentally exhausting for the coaching staff.

It was the lowest point of the franchise since acquiring Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. A core that was built to be title contenders for the foreseeable future was barely sharing the floor together. The Clippers looked more like a lottery unit than a group that could win one playoff series, let alone make another deep run at the West crown.

Then, before it got out of hand, Leonard and company answered the bell. Right on cue, the Clippers formulated their longest win streak of the season — five games — and appeared to be as dominant as advertised. Although the competition wasn’t top-tier with L.A. facing the putrid Spurs’ defense twice, along with a slew of mediocre teams in the Lakers, Mavericks, and Hawks, it could be considered the turning point.

Not surprisingly, the win streak coincided with the Clippers’ superstars playing together for their longest stretch of games. Leonard and George are finally healthy and looking fresh, gaining reps in the starting lineup and making late pushes for All-Star candidacy.

Finding a groove has been challenging for the Clippers while they also prioritize their stars’ health and long-term outline. Leonard and George are routinely held out of back-to-backs, as was the case in their last matchup versus Cleveland on Jan. 29. It’s the right call for any medical staff to save players from themselves whenever they have a recent history of knee issues (Leonard) or hamstring strains (George). It’s more of an indictment on the NBA’s schedule than a team not valuing the regular season, which is often the narrative that gets spread about this iteration of the Clippers.

Still, regardless of the reason and who’s making decisions on rest days, the Clippers knew it was time to build a winning resume. In mid-January, at the tail end of the aforementioned skid, George declared a turnaround was coming.

“Urgency starts now,” George remarked. “We’ve got to start playing with some desperation.”

Ivica Zubac, the team’s starting center who has appeared in 51 of their 53 games and been the ultimate ironman over the years, mentioned last week that guys in the locker room were starting to feel the pressure after racking up so many losses.

Of course, it all begins with availability for this group. We’ve harped on it ad-nauseam.

Where it ends, though, is wherever Kawhi Leonard’s play determines.

When their franchise cornerstone returned from ACL surgery and was on a rigid minutes restriction, he didn’t look comfortable. The shooting was often flat, his north-to-south burst wasn’t fully back, and he was deferring for majority of his minutes.

However, when those restrictions were lifted in December and he returned from an ankle sprain, a switch flipped. Offensively, Leonard is accelerating back to normal form.

Over his last 10 games, which started right after the Clippers got 30-pieced by Denver, Leonard’s production has mirrored what everyone saw in 2021 before the knee injury. Since Jan. 8, he has averaged 29.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on some of the highest efficiency he’s produced as a Clipper. In that 10-game stretch, Leonard has shot 60.7% from two, 46.2% on threes, and 91.9% at the line — on top of generating 6.2 free throw attempts per game, which would eclipse the free throw rate from his last healthy season.

Extend it to Leonard’s last 17 games, and his scoring production looks completely different across the board:

Seventeen games is roughly a month of action for most players who aren’t on a back-to-back maintenance schedule. With this type of individual scoring, shooting north of 72% at the rim and 60% in the paint, Leonard’s shot diet and efficiency is trending closer to his 2021 playoff numbers. For any player, 65% true shooting on that high of a usage rate is considered an elite, MVP-quality combination of volume and delivery.

Despite the Clippers not being where they hoped (record-wise) back in October, Leonard’s recent surge is the most encouraging sign for both the short and long-term approach of the franchise. In many ways, it’s the bellwether signifying they still have the same terminator who was a bona fide top five player in the sport before injury.

Leonard entered the season heavier than usual, mostly due to the weight-training he did during the summer before he was cleared for full contact practices. It made sense why he looked a step or two slow upon returning, and he’s acknowledged how getting consistent games under his belt has helped him get back to his preferred playing weight.

Now, he looks visibly faster in many different scenarios. Whether it’s in semi-transition while attacking an unbalanced defense, getting downhill after a ball-screen and daring someone to challenge him in the paint, or moving his feet to stick with quicker wings defensively.

We’re still seeing the benefits of his added strength, too. For a guy in his first season back after ACL surgery, he’s having no problem creating separation when he gets to his favorite spots. While Leonard will never be quite as fluid and aesthetically-pleasing to watch in the mid-range as the most gifted shot-creators (Kobe, MJ, KD, or even DeRozan), he makes up for any lack of speed with his brute force and power. Even during his ‘comeback’ season, defenders still bounce off of Kawhi when he shoulder bumps them, and his step-back has become deadlier as his career progresses.

It’s easy to identify how his strength and scoring prowess enhances the Clippers’ offense. During his early season games, when he wasn’t nearly as efficient or looking to score as often, Leonard still drew an inordinate amount of double teams for someone coming off a major injury.

Nearly 30 games into his return, he’s now being treated like prime James Harden on a lot of possessions. In Ty Lue’s ball-screen, mismatch-hunting offense, defenders are being forced to make decisions when Kawhi calls for a guard to set a screen. Instead of opting to switch, we’re seeing a lot of teams decide to trap him from beyond the arc, allowing the Clippers’ smaller screeners to slip out, receive the ball in space, and make appropriate reads in 4-on-3 scenarios.

It’s the ultimate sign of respect that a player can log fewer than 30 games in almost two calendar years, but still receive that form of attention on a nightly basis.

If smaller defenders do switch onto Leonard, his recent play would suggest that’s another way to bleed points. So far this season, Leonard has logged 89 possessions as an isolation scorer. He’s generating 1.15 points per possession, ranking in the 86th percentile across the league. For perspective, during his 2020-21 campaign, he scored just 0.94 points per ISO (on a sample size of 189) and ranked in the 65th percentile.

Part of that is how calculated Leonard is offensively. He’s only turning it over on 4.5% of his isolations and 8.4% of his total possessions – both of those marks are the lowest since his championship season in Toronto.

For the Clippers, who are searching the trade market to find potential upgrades before the Feb. 9 deadline, this recent surge was a step in the right direction. The formula wasn’t too hard to find – when Leonard and George are active, this team wins a lot of regular season games. They are now 73-28 when those two play together, equating to just below a 60-win rate.

In their first 15 games together this season, Leonard and George shared the floor for 719 total possessions. The Clippers were plus-60 in those minutes with a 113.5 offensive rating and 105.3 defensive rating. Overall, the Kawhi-PG duo was outscoring teams by 8.2 points per 100 possessions.

Just in the last six games they’ve both been healthy, the Clippers’ star duo is plus-45 across 297 possessions, nearly equaling their point differential in less than half the minutes. With Kawhi and PG on the floor in those six games, the Clippers have recorded a blistering 137 offensive rating and a 119.9 defensive rating. It yields a 17.1 point differential per 100 possessions despite the uninspiring defense in that span.

For all of the national criticism they’ve taken on the chin for their durability and lack of success this year, the Clippers are still sitting fourth in the West. Not only in that homecourt territory in a first-round matchup, but they are just two games back of Sacramento for the third seed (with two more head-to-head meetings to determine the tiebreaker).

We’re about to discover a lot more about this LA Clippers unit as they finish a tough road trip. What’s clear, at the moment, is that a top-tier contender is still in there. They just need this version of Kawhi Leonard, without a lot of interruptions, between now and June.