Justin Verlander’s Free Agency Defies Logic Thanks To Stellar 2022 Season

Free agent right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander was recently named the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year for the American League. The 39-year-old becomes the third major league pitcher to win this special honor along with the Cy Young Award in the same season. Left-handed pitcher Cliff Lee achieved this feat while playing for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008 and right-handed pitcher Rick Porcello was recognized for his 2016 comeback season with the Boston Red Sox. A marvel of modern medicine and perseverance after ulnar collateral ligament surgery on his right elbow at 37 years old, Verlander’s free agency defies logic thanks to a stellar 2022 season.

As multiple large market ball clubs are rumored to have an interest in Verlander, expect the contract structure and potential pairing with three elite aces on Hall of Fame trajectories to be focal points of attention. Houston Astros Owner and Chairman Jim Crane has said Verlander is looking at right-handed pitcher Max Scherzer’s three-year, $130 million contract with the New York Mets as a point of comparison in negotiations. Besides Scherzer’s $43.33 million average annual value, the contract has an opt out clause at the conclusion of the 2023 season, full no-trade protection, and various performance bonuses according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Upon signing the contract in November 2021, Scherzer was 37 years old and coming off a season in which he had finished third in the National League’s Cy Young Award voting.

It would be fascinating to see a reunion between Verlander and right-handed pitchers Gerrit Cole or Max Scherzer in New York with either the Yankees or Mets. The pairing of Verlander with left-handed pitcher Clayton Kershaw would be magical as they could wind down their Hall of Fame careers together with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kershaw (2,807) and free agent right-handed pitcher Zack Greinke (2,882) are the only two current pitchers who are knocking on the door to join Verlander in the 3,000 strikeout club. As Greinke (223) has already joined Verlander (244) with 200 career wins, Kershaw (197) should achieve this milestone at some point during the 2023 season.

A return to the Astros is a strong possibility, but the finances and length of contract might not make sense given their depth in pitching talent and needs at other positions, particularly first base. Last season, the Astros had used eight different starting pitchers. However, the core going forward will focus on left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez and right-handed pitchers Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers, Jr. Four of the pitchers are in various stages of pre-arbitration and arbitration eligibility. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, McCullers, Jr. had signed a five-year contract extension for $85 million which began at the outset of the 2022 season.

It is unlikely that Verlander will accrue multiple 200 innings pitched and 200 strikeout seasons going forward. He has amassed nine seasons of at least 200 innings pitched and 200 strikeouts. This feat was last accomplished by him in 2019 with 223 innings pitched and 300 strikeouts while winning a second American League Cy Young Award in his age 36 season. According to Baseball-Reference’s Stathead, there have only been four pitchers to post at least 200 strikeouts over 200 innings pitched in their age 40 season or older: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Phil Niekro, and Nolan Ryan. Johnson achieved this feat twice (ages 40-41 seasons) while Ryan did it four times (ages 40-43 seasons).

Certain ball clubs are willing to pursue excellence at a premium price, but with Verlander they must also understand he will not carry the same workload that has defined his prolific career. The following chart chronicles all starting pitchers since Verlander’s first Cy Young Award in 2011 through 2022 who have eclipsed 200 innings pitched, 200 strikeouts, or both in the same season.

Verlander’s excellence this past season cannot overshadow reality. On Opening Day 2023, he will be 40 years old and pitching in his 18^th major league season in which he has thrown 51,429 pitches over 3,163 innings according to Baseball-Reference. In 482 regular season starts, Verlander has surpassed 100 pitches thrown in a ball game 378 times (78.42 percent) while achieving a career high 132 pitches on two occasions. He beautifully embodies accountability, stubbornness, intensity, and intelligence. Regardless of work ethic and endearing qualities age is not on Verlander’s side, especially with a reconstructed ulnar collateral ligament.

Verlander has mentioned a desire to pitch until the age of 45 with health, family, and life playing a pivotal role in the decision. Presently, that would mean another six seasons where Verlander could pursue two significant milestones: 300 wins and 4,000 strikeouts. There are only four members of this elite fraternity: Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Nolan Ryan. If Verlander were to pitch for another six seasons, he would have to average 9.34 wins and 133.67 strikeouts annually to achieve both of these extraordinary feats.

While projecting the future is an impossibility, the present tells us Justin Verlander is one of the best pitchers in baseball and can command a short-term contract with an average annual value of $45 million. As the question of length of years is obvious, other concerns pertain to load management and the looming presence of father time. Verlander could confront restrictions on innings pitched and skipped starts to maintain his vigor for postseason competition while paying closer attention to signs of fatigue and changes in pitching mechanics. Whatever ball club signs Verlander, they must be comfortable with the reality of diminishing returns and understand what it means to invest an extraordinary amount of money in a 40-year-old starting pitcher given how bullpens are utilized in the modern game, regardless of age.