Just As The Mariners Offense Steps Up, Their Pitching Staff Falters

Being a Seattle Mariner fan can be hazardous to one’s health. They’re a long-suffering bunch – heck, they already were when I worked there over a decade ago. The M’s are the only major league club that has never played in the World Series. And that’s not to say they haven’t had some good clubs – indeed, perhaps the greatest regular season team in MLB history, the 116-win 2001 edition, hailed from Seattle. That was only part of the franchise’s golden age, which saw the likes of Ken Griffey, Jr., Edgar Martinez, Randy Johnson and Ichiro Suzuki, Hall of Famers all, play their best seasons in the city.

We’re not exactly living in another Mariner golden age, but they have been a relevant club in recent seasons. Led by a deep, durable starting rotation, the M’s have been consistent contenders in recent seasons, though it has translated to only a single playoff appearance. Along the way, the club’s ownership and front office has run into criticism – deserved, in my opinion – for not putting its best financial foot forward and attempting to transform a good team into a great one. In just the last two offseasons, two of their biggest moves were dealing power-hitting 3B Eugenio Suarez to Arizona for minor leaguers, and signing utilityman Donovan Solano as a free agent. Not exactly what pennant dreams are made of.

In both 2023 and 2024, they missed the playoff by a single game. In the former season, it burned just a bit more, as one of the teams who edged them out in the AL West (by all of two games), the Texas Rangers, went on to win it all. That one extra move, those few million extra dollars that weren’t spent, just might have cost them that precious World Series berth.

The strongest unit of the M’s recent contending clubs has been their starting rotation. In 2023, their rotation had the 3rd best ERA in the AL, and logged the most innings. They stepped up their game even further in 2024, leading the AL with a 3.38 ERA, threw 31 2/3 more innings than any other rotation in the league, and also had the most strikeouts (889) and fewest walks (185). Despite all of this, their subpar team offense kept them from reaching the postseason in either year.

So now turn the page to 2025. It should be the M’s season. Alex Bregman left the rival Astros as a free agent last offseason, and Yordan Alvarez has been sidelined with a hand injury for most of the first half. The door to the AL West title is wide open. And suddenly the Mariners have a fairly potent offense, led by AL home run leader, catcher Cal Raleigh, and center fielder Julio Rodriguez. Whither the M’s? Through Monday’s games, just a single game over .500, in 2nd place, 4 1/2 games behind those pesky Astros.

The pitching staff has not been up to its usual form, due both to injury and ineffectiveness. George Kirby was hit in the face by a line drive, and is only now rounding into form. Logan Gilbert missed time with an elbow injury, and just returned to the rotation this week. And Bryce Miller is dealing with elbow woes of his own, and is likely weeks away from returning. While Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo have been holding their end of the bargain, youngsters Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans have only been able to offer reasonable quality without the innings bulk their injured counterparts have tended to deliver.

Thank heavens for Raleigh. He’s a fairly unique offensive player. His 23.6 degree average launch angle is about as high as a MLB regular can reach. Tons of fly balls, lots of pop ups. He also strikes out a ton, so he needs to deliver big power to be an impact bat. And that’s what he does – though he has had some good fortune at the plate this season, especially in the most important batted ball categories, fly balls (274 Unadjusted vs. 200 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) and line drives (128 vs. 116). He “should be” hitting .235-.341-.530, with 146 “Tru” Production+, significantly below his current actual numbers.

He finished 18th and 12th in the AL MVP voting in 2023 and 2024, and according to my batted ball-based method, should have finished even higher – 8th in 2023 and 7th in 2024 with 24.5 and 35.5 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA), respectively.

Raleigh is signed to a six-year, $105 million contract that extends through the 2030 season, and while that appears to be a great deal for the M’s as things stand, his aging curve could be a tricky one. He has historically been a great defender (he won a Gold Glove last season), but hasn’t looked quite as good this season. Plus, his offensive skills are of the “old player” variety. He’s a career .224 hitter (his SLG is over twice as high at .467). It’s all walks and homers, and if either of those dry up, what’ve you got? To date, he has 17.2 TPRAA, which is again on track to land him in the Top 10 of my MVP list – but you might have been expecting a higher number, right?

Then there’s Rodriguez, who just keeps you wanting more. At 24, his offensive production continues to dwindle ever so slightly with each passing season. He’s hitting .257-.318-.413 through Monday’s games, continues to be overaggressive at the plate, and just doesn’t seem to be the guy to whom the M’s committed $209.3 million over 12 years.

But wait a second. After adjusting for his batted ball data, Rodriguez’ bat projection improves only slightly, to .261-.309-.429. But he also brings plenty of value to the table in other facets of the game, like baserunning and especially defense. He has emerged as one of the elite defensive center fielders in the game, and has a solid chance to win his first career Gold Glove this season. He finished 9th on my hypothetical MVP ballot in 2023, right behind Raleigh, and if he can firm up his offensive game, a down ballot MVP presence could result. He presently has 11.5 TPRAA. I would argue that his aging curve will be a much smoother one than Raleigh’s, and that he will be worth his contract and then some.

So the Mariners remain in the playoff hunt. Their starting pitchers are slowly rejoining the rotation, and hopefully their offensive improvements can stick. The front office/ownership group will also need to do their part and add talent – and salary – at the deadline. Playoff windows don’t stay open forever, and the M’s are probably closer to the end than to the beginning of theirs.