Juan Soto Sweepstakes Will Kick Off The Offseason

Nothing in the free agency or trade market can start until after the World Series is over. At least not officially. That hasn’t stopped trade rumors from swirling around Padres outfielder Juan Soto.

Despite being just 25 and one of San Diego’s most productive hitters, former manager Bob Melvin reportedly wanted him traded last season. And although Melvin has moved on to manage the Giants, the sentiment in the Padres organization is still one that favors moving forward without Soto.

The left fielder has already been linked to the Yankees and Cubs. New York has reportedly had a “preliminary conversation” with San Diego about what it would take to bring Soto’s bat to their lineup. And the Cubs have said that they will be involved in the Soto sweepstakes as well, according to Bruce Levine of 670 the Score in Chicago. On that front, utilityman Christopher Morel has emerged as an appealing trade piece. Per Levine, multiple teams have asked about the 24-year-old who posted an .821 OPS with 26 home runs in 2023 and who happens to be under team control until 2028.

The main question regarding Soto at this point, however, is why a team like San Diego would be looking to trade someone of his caliber. They acquired him in a massive, eight-player deal at the 2022 trade deadline, so it would seem to make sense for them to build around Soto for the future. The Padres went 82-80 in 2023 and finished in third in their division behind the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Soto’s bat would likely help the Padres stay in contention with those two teams.

But the reason Soto could be headed for another city is mostly financial. His last year of arbitration comes in 2024, and he is estimated to command around $27 million, according to Spotrac. From there, Soto becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2025 and will almost certainly be looking for a big payday. Keeping Soto under team control is going to be expensive for whatever team chooses to do it. For San Diego, their long-term plans look like they will involve a trimmed-down payroll and more young players who are under team control for several more years. Soto is an incredible talent and young, but he might simply be too expensive for general manager A.J. Preller’s tastes.

No details have come out of New York regarding what players they would send in return for Soto, and in Chicago, it’s not the case that they would be trading Morel for Soto straight up. The Cubs have some advantage in that they have the fourth-ranked farm system in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, and several of their touted prospects are outfielders. Their estimated payroll going into 2024 is only $170 million, so they have room in their budget for Soto.

The Cubs might be incentivized to make a push for Soto if they are not able to keep Cody Bellinger. Chicago needs left-handed power, and though adding Soto would potentially create something of a logjam in the outfield — Gold Glover Ian Happ is currently a fixture in left field, they have up-and-comer Pete Crow Armstrong looking to man center, and Seiya Suzuki is the mainstay in right field — Soto is the kind of player a team adds and then the lineup wrinkles can be smoothed out later. In short, finding at-bats for all those players is a good problem to have.

So far, the Cubs and Yankees are the only teams with direct links to Soto, but other teams — like the Phillies — have been named in speculation as well. When general manager meeting begin on November 7, other teams will most assuredly be engaging in their initial conversations as well.

Soto will be one of the biggest moves of the offseason. That is, assuming he does get traded. That the Padres are reportedly having initial conversations makes sense from a long-term financial perspective. The player return they could get for him would be significant, so if San Diego’s aim is to look beyond 2024 for their competitive window, moving Soto now makes sense. They don’t have to trade him this winter though. The Padres could wait until next summer’s trade deadline, but that would mean going through the arbitration process and paying him at least part of the salary he’ll command in 2024. Depending on how badly San Diego wants to cut payroll, they might be motivated to try and move Soto this winter.

If that’s the case, then Soto’s presence in the winter market will have an impact on how a lot of teams approach their offseason. He may not be the first player to move, but it’s smart to expect that more than a handful of teams will be involved in talking to the Padres about him, and that will influence both the rest of the trade market and free agency.