Jordan Peele’s ‘Nope’ Nabs Solid $19.5 Million Friday

First, a huge disclaimer. Yes, I will delve into why Jordan Peele’s Nope (review) opened maybe a little smaller than hoped or expected. However, there isn’t a single filmmaker other than maybe (*maybe*) Chris Nolan and (in China specifically) Wu Jing for whom a $19.54 million opening day for an R-rated live-action original movie would require an explanation or a reaction other than champagne bottles being popped. In some ways, these are the most challenging weekends to cover (cough-Shrek Forever After-cough). We have a film opening with what is objectively an excellent number but below most expectations. Thus, I must carefully explain why the gross is lower without making it seem like a failure. It perhaps bears discussing why Nope looks to open closer to The Conjuring 2 than The Nun but grab a saltshaker because we’re going to need a few grains.

So, it appears that Jordan Peele’s UFO invasion thriller “only” opened with $19.54 million on its first day of domestic release. Presuming weekend legs between Us ($71 million from a $29 million Friday) and Halloween Kills ($49 million from a $23 million Friday) posits a likely opening weekend between $42 million and $48 million. That’s just below the $22.83 million Friday/$49 million opening weekend of Halloween Kills, which currently holds the “Covid-era R-rated record” and was concurrently available on Peacock. However, I’m old enough to remember when we all wept in joy when John Krasinski’s $61 million A Quiet Place part II (a PG-13 sequel that was supposed to open in March of 2020) opened with $19 million on its first Friday in May of 2021. I will not now mourn at Jordan Peele’s R-rated, $69 million original earning $19.5 million on day one.

The $19.54 million Friday comes partially from a $6.4 million Thursday gross, meaning that 33% of the first day came from previews versus 26% for Us ($28.8 million from a $7.4 million preview gross). Do I think that earlier preview showings (as early as 4:00 pm these days) make much impact in terms of a Thursday-to-weekend percentage? I guess it’s possible, as I note that this week marks the tenth anniversary of why we don’t have midnight showings anymore. Us was seen as a symbolic follow-up to Get Out, a critically acclaimed Oscar-winner that was leggy as hell ($175 million from a $33 million debut), thus making Us a quasi-breakout sequel. Nope, which had less buzz and whose marketing was both cryptic and revealing, was never going to pull a $70 million launch. But, alas, under $50 million does “feel” like a mild disappointment.

This current Peele flick, starring Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, Steven Yeun, Brandon Perea and Michael Wincott, is slightly like M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs. Both films are about a farm family terrorized by UFOs. Both opened in late summer as the last super-duper movie of the season. Both represented a marquee filmmaker’s third big Hollywood movie. However, Signs had Mel Gibson at the peak of his butts-in-seats star power (What Women Want had just earned $180 million domestic in late 2000) and an extra helping of faith-based interest. That element arguably goosed the $60 million opening weekend and kept the top-notch crowdpleaser coasting to $229 million domestic. Moreover, in terms of Us being a “metaphorical breakout sequel” to Get Out and opening on par with Halloween ($77 million in 2018), it makes sense that Nope would open closer to Halloween Kills.

Barring an upswing over Saturday and Sunday (see Skull Island and Jumanji: The Next Level earning over/under $60 million from $20 million Friday grosses), Nope won’t become the biggest R-rated opener since Joker ($96 million) in October of 2019. It’ll likely open closer to Get Out than Us, although I’d expect longer legs than Us ($175 million from a $71 million launch). Even with a B from Cinemascore (on par with Us), there is little competition after Bullet Train, and Nope was mostly hidden until this week (most folks knew what they were getting with Us). Moreover, this latest Peele picture is a more conventionally crowd-pleasing spectacle that demands a big screen. It’s still an R-rated, live-action original with limited star power (talent ≠ butts in seats) that will open on par with Uncharted and Fantastic Beasts 3. Is that still a relative win? Yup.