Jordan Peele’s New Movie Nabs Strong $6.4 Million Thursday

Universal and Monkeypaw’s Nope got off to a promising start via Thursday previews. The well-reviewed and thus far well-received Jordan Peele adventure earned $6.4 million via pre-release previews. That compares favorably with the $7.4 million Thursday preview grosses for Us back in late March of 2019. That film grossed $28 million on Friday (still the biggest opening day gross for a live-action original) and $71 million over the weekend (second only to Avatar among live-action original opening weekends). Suppose Nope, which stars Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, Steven Yeun, Brandon Perea and Michael Wincott, plays exactly like the Lupita Nyong’o/Winston Duke chiller. In that case, we’re looking at a $24 million Friday and $61 million opening weekend, which would be the biggest R-rated debut since Joker ($96 million) in October 2019.

Even if it’s more frontloaded for whatever reason (earlier Thursday showings, Peele being even more of a “gotta see it right now” marquee filmmaker, potentially divisive audience feedback, etc.), a 12.5% Thursday-to-weekend figure gives the R-rated, $69 million IMAX-friendly release a $51 million debut. Even a miserable (and unlikely) 15% figure gives it a $42 million launch, which would be tied with M. Night Shyamalan’s Split in 2017. All these possibilities are “good.” The $50 million figure would put it on par with M. Night Shyamalan’s The Village, which opened likewise in July 2004. The $60 million figure would ironically be on par with M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs (also his third major Hollywood flick and a UFO invasion movie) which opened with $60 million in August of 2002.

I don’t mean to keep comparing Peele to Shyamalan. Although, as always, “the next Harry Potter” was Twilight, just as the “next Game of Thrones” was Stranger Things, precisely because they weren’t the same. However, it’s not like many marquee filmmakers have knocked out a bunch of top-tier debuts with original high-concept chillers, especially not in the last twenty years. Ridley Scott’s Prometheus didn’t emphasize its “Alien prequel” lineage, but knowledge of that helped with its $52 million debut in June of 2012. In raw horror launches, Nope should find itself somewhere between the first two Paranormal Activity sequels ($40 million in 2010 and $52 million in 2011) and Blumhouse’s Halloween, which launched with $77 million in 2018.

Nope is almost sure to seize the “R-rated Covid-era opening weekend record” from Halloween Kills’ $49 million debut last October. Beyond that, the “Hollywood horse trainers try to capture monetizable footage of a UFO” thriller has little that should cause frontloading. The movie works as an old-school, big-screen crowdpleaser that earns its R-rating without offending more sensitive audience members. It offers a few unspoiled surprises without pulling an Unbreakable (in terms of being about something entirely different than presumed). For the record, no one expected this one to open on par with Us’s $71 million launch, as that film frankly had a lot more buzz and was greeted as a metaphorical sequel to Get Out. Anything approaching $50 million, let alone $60 million, is another feather in Peele’s cap.