Jordan Montgomery Gives The Rangers A Fighting Chance In The ALCS

On paper, the first pitching matchup in the American League Championship Series is a mismatch. The Texas Rangers will entrust left-hander Jordan Montgomery to keep pace with Houston Astros future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander. However, Montgomery gives the Rangers an excellent chance to stay in the ballgame as he puts the finishing touches on his resume before free agency.

Starting pitching was supposed to be a strength for the Rangers heading into the 2023 season, but a series of injuries put Montgomery in position to set the tone for the ALCS. They signed Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney as free agents and traded for Jake Odorizzi in the offseason, but all of them except for Eovaldi are injured. This prompted the team to make trade-deadline deals for Max Scherzer and Montgomery, but Scherzer joined his new colleagues on the IL soon thereafter (though he may return for the ALCS).

Montgomery provided stability down the stretch for a Rangers rotation in disarray. He posted a 2.79 ERA in 11 starts since coming over from the St. Louis Cardinals on July 30. Over the full season, his 3.20 ERA over 188 2/3 innings was eighth-best in MLB among qualified pitchers.

He opened the postseason with seven shutout innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card Series as Texas claimed a 4-0 victory. He didn’t fare as well against the Baltimore Orioles in the second game of the Division Series, allowing five runs (four earned) and getting the hook with no outs in the fifth inning, but Texas still won the game, 11-8. Including prior postseason experience with the New York Yankees and the Cardinals, he has a 2.25 ERA over 17 2/3 career innings in the playoffs.

Unlike Verlander, he doesn’t rack up huge strikeout totals. His primary offering is a sinker that averages 93 mph. The pitch is intended to generate weak contact and groundballs rather than swinging strikes. He uses it to pound the strike zone early in counts to get ahead of batters and keep his walk rate low. He can put batters away with his curveball or changeup, though he only features the changeup against right-handed hitters.

His greatest asset of all is durability. He has started 94 games over the past three years, averaging 175 innings per season. He hasn’t missed a start since a brief stay on the COVID IL in 2021. Given the myriad of ailments suffered by other Rangers starting pitchers, this was one of the attributes they coveted most when they acquired him from St. Louis.

This offseason, he will become a free agent for the first time in his career. Even though he isn’t a true ace, his ability to keep runs off the scoreboard, postseason acumen, and unwavering reliability will make him attractive to several suitors. He turns 31 before next season, so he should seek a long-term deal that carries him into his mid-30s.

In August, MLB Trade Rumors ranked him the sixth-best player in the upcoming free-agent class. Since then, his stock has climbed while others have fallen, so he could be the fourth or fifth-best heading into the offseason, especially if he continues his success in the playoffs. The midyear trade means he will not be eligible for a qualifying offer, so any team that signs him won’t have to worry about draft-pick penalties. Expect him to sign a four or five-year contract with an average annual value of around $20 million.

First, he must contend with the Astros. After tonight’s matchup, he will probably start again in Game Five, should the series go so far. He may not have Verlander’s je ne sais quoi, but he’s proven to be a formidable pitcher in his own right and gives the Rangers a fighting chance to start the series with a victory.