Jermell Charlo Vs. Brian Castano II: Odds, Records, Prediction

The last time Jermell Charlo and Brian Castano tried to determine the undisputed junior middleweight champion, the compelling fight ended in an unsatisfying (though not necessarily unwarranted) draw. On Saturday night, Charlo and Castano will try it again, as they face off in a rematch for all four 154-pound world title belts. Here’s everything you need to know about Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

The first time Charlo and Castano fought 10 months ago, Castano built an early lead on the scorecards. But Charlo used his power to hurt Castano multiple times and ended the fight by sweeping the final three rounds. The judges saw it three different ways (one had it 114-114, one had it 117-111 of Charlo and one had it 114-113 for Castano).

Though some observers believe Castano won the fight—and absolutely savaged judge Nelson Vazquez’s 117-111 card after his ruling—there’s little doubt that Charlo was stronger at the end. Which makes the rematch even more intriguing, and it apparently makes Charlo hungrier to score the stoppage.

“Castano is going to have to do something different this fight,” Charlo said. “If not, he knows he’s getting slept. Whatever he does or whatever move he makes, I’m going to be on him. My goal is to knock him out.”

Charlo has fought at the world-class level for the past five years, beating every opponent he’s faced (except Castano). His solid performance last July was to be expected. But Castano was a bit of a surprise. He was more than a 2/1 underdog against Charlo, and the best win on his resume, a victory vs. Patrick Teixeira, was against a B-level opponent. Charlo is anything but that, and still, Castano performed admirably.

“I do believe that I won the first fight,” Castano said. “It might have been by a small margin, but I won it. This time, we’re going to try everything to make sure we don’t leave the fight in the hands of the judges … We had a lot to learn from the first fight with Charlo. One of the biggest things that I learned is to be more cautious at times while I’m in the ring. He’s powerful, but I’m going to bring my power too. We learned from the first fight and we’re going to correct any errors we made.”

Here’s more info on the Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Showtime beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano II odds

For their rematch, the odds are not quite as wide. As of this writing, Charlo is a -210 favorite (bet $210 to win $100), while Castano is a +160 underdog (win $160 on a $100 wager). I think Charlo would win 75% of the time that these two fight, so I wouldn’t mind you taking his money line with those implied odds of 66.7% (especially considering he was at -225 earlier this week). But I like Charlo to win by KO/TKO at +260 even better, and I like the +400 you’d get for wagering on a Charlo stoppage between rounds 7-12.

Even the idea of wagering a little on a draw at +1400 is somewhat appealing. If you believe in Castano, though, I’d take him to win by decision at +300 instead of by KO/TKO at +600.

Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano II records

Charlo (34-1-1, 18 KOs) has fought an impressive array of opponents since 2017. Those include victories against Erickson Lubin, Austin Trout, Jeison Rosario and Tony Harrison (Harrison beat Charlo in their first meeting). Though his knockout percentage isn’t all that impressive, Charlo has shown more and more power as his opponents have improved, and he’s scored stoppages in seven of his last eight wins.

A victory against Charlo would undoubtedly be the biggest win of Castano’s career. At 17-0-2 (12 KOs), he’s scored draws against his two most difficult opponents (Charlo and Erislandy Lara), and he has solid wins vs. Wale Omotoso and Michel Soro.

Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano II prediction

This should be an excellent bout. Castano will press the action, and Charlo will try to counter. Through the first half of the fight, this will be close, with Castano perhaps taking a small lead on the scorecards. But sometime in the second half of the fight, Charlo is going to hurt Castano, like he did multiple times in their first meeting. This time Charlo will finish him to become undisputed champ. Say, Charlo by stoppage in the 10^th round.