Jake Paul Vs. Tommy Fury: Odds, Records, Prediction

The fact that the Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury matchup has been talked about more in the past year or so than nearly every other potential fight doesn’t necessarily mean that boxing is going through a slump. Instead, it means that Paul, the YouTube star who has turned himself into of the most popular pro boxers and perhaps the world’s biggest cheerleader of women’s boxing has become a phenom in the sport—and he’s created a huge international event with Fury as a result. Here’s everything you need to know about Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Paul has made his name in this sport by brutally knocking out former MMA stars and ex-NBA players, but for the first time in his career on Sunday, he’ll actually face a legitimate pro boxer. That, however, certainly doesn’t mean Fury, despite the fact his half-brother is Tyson Fury, is a better fighter than Paul.

Paul has been on bigger platforms, and he’s had more eye-catching results than Fury, even though Fury’s career has lasted two years longer. Need proof? How about Paul’s mammoth KOs of Nate Robinson, Ben Askren and Tyron Woodley.

“He’s going to get knocked out by a Disney star—plain and simple,” Paul said, via Boxing Scene. “That’s it. End of story. You’ll see, bro. You’ll see who the real professional boxer is. And all these critics, all of these people say, ‘Fight a real boxer.’ Well, here we go . . . Tommy has so much to lose. His family is going to disown him when I knock him out. Plain and simple, that’s it.”

Unsurprisingly, Fury disagrees with that sentiment. Instead, he says he’s going to retire Paul while also taking note that Paul is coming off a victory against 47-year-old Anderson Silva.

“He will never box again. I’m not 50, I ain’t 40. I ain’t an MMA guy. I’ve been doing this my whole life, and I swear to God, you’re finished come the 26th of February,” Fury told Paul. “I will school you. I was beating people better than you when I was 14 while you were messing about on the Disney Channel. Don’t come here pretending you’re about it when you’re not.”

This fight has been more than a year in the making. Originally, they were supposed to meet at the end of 2021, but Fury suffered an injury while training and had to pull out of the fight. They rescheduled for the middle of 2022, but Fury had visa issues trying to enter the U.S., and again, it was called off.

Now, we’ll finally get to see what happens when two boxing neophytes who are better known for being reality stars finally meet in the ring. And there’s a good chance Paul will continue to mark himself as one of the top PPV attractions in the entire sport.

Here’s more info on the Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on ESPN+ PPV for $49.99 beginning at 2 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury odds

While Fury, at times, has been the betting favorite in the leadup, Paul is securely the front-runner in the eyes of sports books. As of Friday afternoon, he was a -160 favorite (bet $160 to win $100), while Fury was the +140 underdog (win $140 on a $100 wager). I wouldn’t touch Fury’s money line, but I don’t think betting Paul straight up is a terrible idea.

Though I don’t think there’s a ton of value in grabbing Paul to win by KO/TKO at +215, I’d much rather take Paul to win by stoppage in rounds 5-8 at +600. I’m not sure Fury will outbox Paul, so if you’re hankering to put money on Fury, I’d do it by stoppage at +240. But in reality, I don’t love that action either.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Paul to beat Fury by stoppage at +215 and for Subriel Matias to knock out Jeremias Ponce at -185. That would pay $385 on a $100 wager.

Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury records

Some of Paul’s knockouts have been spectacular, particularly against Robinson, Woodley and Askren. But at 6-0 (4 KOs), Paul has still never fought a professional boxer. Perhaps his biggest test came against Silva, because, even though Silva was nearing 50, he was a true MMA legend. It’ll be fascinating to see what happens when Paul exchanges punches with Fury.

While Fury (8-0, 4 KOs) has more pro experience than Paul, his opponents haven’t exactly been top-notch. Aside from his latest victory against a man who was 10-1, the rest of his opponents have a combined record of 14-175-1.

Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury prediction

Paul has proven himself as somebody who’s willing to work hard and improve at his newly found craft. I’m not sure the same could be said of Fury. It’ll be fascinating to see how Paul responds when he gets hit in the face by an actual boxing professional, but I think he’ll survive and end up landing a massive punch or two. Say, Paul by stoppage in the sixth round.