I’ve Got to Admit It, This Bear Market Is Starting to Wear Me Out

September was a pretty rotten month for the stock market, but I didn’t receive nearly as many frustrated and panicked phone calls last month from non-traders regarding their investments as I have over the past few days, and the stock market is positive for October!

Many of us are familiar with the saying that bear markets don’t scare you out; they wear you out. Based on recent conversations with folks who don’t stare at stocks all day, I believe an increasing number have reached the worn-out stage of this bear market. That’s not to say stocks can’t fall further — they can. And after a fourth-quarter rally, which I, like others, believe is coming, I expect stocks to take another leg lower.

Thursday morning I saw that Canaccord Genuity upgraded Datadog (DDOG) and said it’s one of the best stocks to buy in a wrecked software tape. Datadog is a company I’ve followed for quite some time, and until the software sector fell apart in late 2022 it was a go-to stock for me. But to some degree, I’m as worn out as the folks I’ve been speaking with.

Pivoting to a very short-term trading style (from swing trading) has kept me from enduring much financial pain, but still, week after week of crummy price action is, well, miserable. The bottom line is I’m not interested in placing chips on the table, betting that Canaccord’s timing is correct. My disinterest indicates that even the guys who have been doing this for 20-plus years are tired. And from a sentiment perspective, maybe that’s bullish.

Turning to the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) , the ETF closed Thursday’s after-hours trading session slightly beneath the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) anchored to the Oct. 13 intraday swing low. While I don’t like seeing the price beneath the 21-day and 10-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), I plan to look long above $268 (the anchored VWAP) during the day timeframe. Unfortunately, bids have been thinning out each time we trade between $272.50 and $273, so until we attract a meaningful buyer capable of sustaining a bullish intraday trend, I’ll look to play the edges of $268 and $273. I don’t see a reason for short-term traders to do anything other than scalp until the QQQ closes above the 21-day EMA.