It’s Time To Give John Collins A Chance To Become A Star

Playing in his fifth NBA season, Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins seems primed to step into a larger offensive role.

The 24-year-old has been a supremely efficient scorer dating back to his days at Wake Forest, and has converted on 56.3% of all attempted shots since making it to the NBA in 2017.

During the 2019-2020 season, his third in the league, Collins averaged 21.6 points per game in just over 33 minutes, on a healthy diet of inside shots and three-pointers, sporting a TS of 65.9%, a downright mesmerizing number for a high-volume scorer.

Since then, however, Collins has averaged 17.5 points per game on just 12.2 nightly shot attempts over the course of 101 games, which seems like a waste for a franchise that just paid him $125 million over five years to stick around.

Massive depth

Before the start of the 2020-2021 season, the Hawks went shopping. They upgraded their starting lineup with Bogdan Bogdanovic on a deal worth $72 million, they upgraded their bench with Danilo Gallinari for $61.5 million, and they even added a Top 10 draft pick, Onyeka Okongwu, for good measure.

This came on the heels of two Top 10 picks the year before in De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, both of whom were seeking more minutes going into their second year.

Additionally, Clint Capela joined the lineup. The Hawks had traded for him during the 2020 trade deadline, but he was dealing with an injury at the time, making him unavailable for the remainder of the season.

With Trae Young still leading the show, this new Hawks team was positively loaded with talent at virtually every position, leaving some players with the job of sacrificing for the greater good. 

This meant Collins.

The Hawks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, in part due to their depth. This year, they rank 12th in the East, having won just 18 of 43 games while often looking discombobulated. There’s still belief in the team overall, as evident by them expected to finish third in their division, per FanDuel Sportsbook, but it will take a superhuman effort to get them on the same page, if the status quo of internal strife is to remain.

Last week, the Hawks cleared up some of their minutes crunch when they traded Reddish to the New York Knicks. This came shortly after Collins had voiced frustration about his role which, given the former level of production from his side, frankly seems fair.

Of course, moving Reddish isn’t going to solve much of anything, unless the Hawks do what is sorely needed, which is to consolidate some of their assets. Collins still has to compete for shots with Young, Hunter, Gallinari, Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter, all of whom are more perimeter oriented, and all of whom can create their own offense.

Outside of Young, there seems to be no set hierarchy on the team, which on the surface appears odd considering not only Collins’ rather obvious offensive skill level and theoretical fit with Young, but also the previously mentioned financial commitment the Hawks made to him this past summer.

Paying one of the most offensively skilled forwards in the league $25 million per year only to not lean into those skills is at best questionable, and at worst negligent if the Hawks wish to create a long-term competitive window.

Some might point to Atlanta’s offensive rating, which ranks 2nd in the league, and argue the offense isn’t the problem.

To an extent, that’s true. The combined talents of players currently on Atlanta’s roster have produced an elite offense.

That said, players are people. They have feelings, and they have needs. Getting players to buy in to a system and a plan is key for sustained success. With Collins voicing concerns, for the second year in a row no less, clearly that has not been achieved. 

Furthermore, the Hawks rank 23rd in the league in two-point efficiency at 51.3%, which is an area where Collins has demonstrated great skill. For his career, Collins has converted on 61% of all two-point attempts, and he’s yet to have a single year of hitting under 73% of his shots from within three feet of the basket.

Make no mistake, there is still room for offensive improvement for the Hawks, and Collins should be an increased part of the solution. 

Leaning into Collins

The good news for the Hawks is that they have time to change their approach in regards to Collins.

It takes a commitment from the coaching staff to invest more possessions in him, which doesn’t necessarily mean force-feeding him in the post 20 times a day like the Knicks used to do with Eddy Curry.

A commitment can be getting him the ball more generally, and letting him get more of a say in how the offense should develop, either by calling his own number or by using himself as a decoy to throw defenses off the scent of what the Hawks want to do.

It could also be as simple as more rolls to the basket off of screens, particularly when Capela is on the bench, or an increased three-point rate. There are a lot of ways to implement him, and while it will come at the expense of some players, it’s a necessary sacrifice if the Hawks wish to see Collins develop into the perennial 20-point scorer that he very clearly can become.

Leaning into Collins also means allowing other players to fly under the radar. With increased focus on both Young and Collins, players such and Hunter and Huerter could pick and choose their spots by carefully identifying when defenses aren’t geared into stopping them.

Having Collins compete for shots with players significantly below his offensive skill set won’t do anyone any good, neither in the short or long-term.

Alternatively, if the Hawks prefer to play a heavy brand of perimeter basketball, where most of their rotation get similar shot amounts, it might simply be best to shop Collins around the league and pivot into something else.

Put simply, for as long as the Hawks have Collins on their roster, and they aren’t making him a higher priority, the more wasteful they become. 

Of course, there’s also the matter of Young’s role in this, as the Hawks are playing a near heliocentric system around him.

For Collins to fully spread his wings, he and Young must come up with a shared vision to work in unison, and that challenge currently appears significant.

The organization have some work to do on this front, and the sooner they figure out their next move, the better for everyone.