It’s the worst September for stocks since 2008. What that means for October.

But first, how does the current month stack up? The S&P 500
SPX,
-0.30%,
down 7.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-0.03%,
down 9.1%, are on track for their worst September performances since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.41%,
down 7.25%, is set for its worst September since 2002.

Dow Jones Market Data found that in Octobers that follow a 7% or larger fall in September, the S&P 500 rises 0.53% on average in October and sees a median gain of 1.81%. That’s better than the average for all Octobers at 0.47% and the median at 1.03%. October is positive in years following an outsize September loss 54.55% of the time, versus 57.45% for all Octobers (see table below).

S&P 500

Dow Jones Market Data found that in Octobers following a September drop of 7% or more, the Dow has seen an average fall of 1.51% and a median drop of 1.46%. That compares with an average rise of 0.37% for all Octobers and a median gain of 0.79%. The S&P 500 has risen 46.15% of the time in Octobers that follow a 7% or more September decline, versus a rise 57.6% of the time for all Octobers (see table below).

DJIA

And here are the numbers for the Nasdaq in October following a September drop of 9% or more:

Since 1950, September has been the worst performing month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 and the worst for the Nasdaq Composite since 1971 and the small-cap Russell 2000 since 1979, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

The Dow’s September drop is shaping up to be its biggest monthly decline of 2022. September’s drop for the S&P 500, however, is on track to be the worst monthly decline since June, when it fell 8.4%, according to FactSet. The S&P 500 dropped 8.8% in April. The Nasdaq saw a fall of more than 13% in April.