It’s Not Too Late For The Chicago Cubs To Make Willson Contreras Their Yadier Molina

Major League Baseball’s trade season is approaching. Just ask Willson Contreras, who is already the subject of daily rumors.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal led off a Monday notebook with a Contreras item, exploring how the Cubs’ 30-year-old catcher is being linked to the Astros, Yankees, Giants, Padres and Mets, with even a mention of the Rays. There’s no question he is in demand, as his bat plays in the designated hitter spot when he is not handling pitchers.

But it’s hard to get around a nagging question: Why wouldn’t the Cubs hang onto Contreras?

President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and owner Tom Ricketts need look no further than the division rival Cardinals to see the value of building around an All-Star catcher.

Yadier Molina has spent his 19-year career in St. Louis, helping the Cardinals to 18 winning seasons, two championships, four pennants and 12 trips to the postseason while setting himself up for a trip to Cooperstown. Contreras hasn’t distinguished himself to that level but he’s shown himself to be a much more dangerous hitter while being as durable as Molina.

Contreras is a .260 hitter with an .814 OPS over 671 games with the Cubs, generating 19.4 rWAR. Molina hit .268 with a .688 OPS in his first seven seasons, producing 11.3 rWAR. He also won the first three of his nine Gold Gloves, a distinction that has eluded Contreras.

The Cardinals’ ownership and front office have consistently shown their affection for Molina with long-term contracts. He signed his first after his third full season and followed that with a five-year deal in 2013 and a three-year deal in ’18, both of which were at top of the market prices (totaling $135 million over eight years).

Contreras has gone year-to-year with the Cubs, filing for arbitration the last three years. He didn’t nail down his 2022 salary until last week. He and the Cubs settled at $9.625 million, the mid-point between his arbitration request and the Cubs’ offer.

From the Cubs’ perspective, the injury risk and wear-and-tear experienced by catchers argues against locking up Contreras.

The Texas Rangers had similar concerns when Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez approached free agency in 1997. The Rangers had worked out a deal with the Yankees before Rodriguez accepted a contract extension only hours before the deadline.

The price of a Contreras extension seems likely to be at least $23 million a year for four-six years, based on the extension J.T. Realmuto signed after being traded from the Marlins to the Phillies in 2020. They are in a strong financial position to sign him, as the Cubs have only Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman and David Bote signed beyond next season.

Why wouldn’t they want the same relationship with Contreras that worked so well for the Cardinals with Molina?