It Might Be Now Or Never For This Sixers Core To Win The NBA Title

The Philadelphia 76ers enter the 2022-23 NBA season on the short list of championship favorites. FanDuel Sportsbook lists them as a +1600 to win this year’s title, trailing only the Boston Celtics (+600), Milwaukee Bucks (+650), Brooklyn Nets (+700), Los Angeles Clippers (+700), Golden State Warriors (+700) and Phoenix Suns (+1000).

Even if the Sixers fall short of the title this year, they have most of their key players signed through the 2023-24 season. James Harden can become a free agent next summer by declining his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season, but he seems likely to stay in Philadelphia one way or another as well.

The Sixers have far less stability at the back end of their roster after this season, though. That might make this year their best chance to win a championship with their current core.

The Sixers have Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker and De’Anthony Melton all under contract through 2023-24, along with Furkan Korkmaz and Jaden Springer. Danuel House Jr. ($4.3 million) and Montrezl Harrell ($2.8 million) could stay as well if they pick up their respective player options for next season. However, Matisse Thybulle, Paul Reed and Isaiah Joe are all set to become restricted free agents next offseason, while Georges Niang and Shake Milton will be unrestricted free agents.

It’s far easier for NBA teams to replenish back-of-the-bench depth than top-end talent, but the Sixers won’t have many mechanisms with which to add talent if any of those players depart in free agency.

The Sixers owe their unprotected 2023 first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets as part of the trade that landed them Harden in February. They do have their own second-round pick along with the most favorable between the Charlotte Hornets, Atlanta Hawks and Nets, but championship contenders rarely depend on second-round rookies to play sizable roles.

If the 2023-24 salary cap lands at $134 million as projected, Embiid’s supermax extension will begin at $46.9 million next season. Add in the rest of their guaranteed contracts, and the Sixers already have $117.1 million committed to only seven players in 2023-24.

The luxury-tax line is currently projected to land at $162 million next season, which the Sixers will be hard-pressed to stay under. If Harden declines his $35.6 million player option as expected, he will be eligible to sign a max contract beginning as high as $46.9 million, so he alone could push them into tax territory.

Unless Harden walks as a free agent next summer, the Sixers are likely to have only the $7.0 million taxpayer mid-level exception at their disposal to sign external free agents. Beyond that, they’ll be limited to veteran-minimum contracts.

The Sixers did successfully land Harrell with a minimum deal this past offseason, but they’ve needed salary-cap exceptions to sign Tucker (non-taxpayer), House (bi-annual) and Niang (taxpayer) over the past two years. Depending on how many players they lose in free agency, they might have to break up the TMLE to sign multiple players to cheaper deals rather than spend the entire $7.0 million on one free agent.

Bird rights might be the Sixers’ saving grace next offseason. Because Thybulle, Milton, Reed and Joe will have all spent at least three years with the team by then, the Sixers will be able to exceed the salary cap to re-sign them to anything up to a max contract. (None of them are likely to command anything close to that, to be clear.) They’ll also have Early Bird rights on Niang, which will allow them to offer him a starting salary worth 105 percent of the league’s annual salary from the 2022-23 season (north of $10 million).

If House and Harrell decline their respective player options, the Sixers will only have non-Bird rights on them. That means they can re-sign them to a salary starting at 120 percent of what they earned in 2022-23, but other teams could easily outbid them for either player. (The Sixers could also use some or all of their TMLE to re-sign either one.)

The only thing technically stopping the Sixers from outbidding any other suitor on Thybulle, Milton, Reed, Niang and Joe is the threat of a ballooning luxury-tax bill. The ongoing negotiations over the league’s next collective bargaining agreement could further complicate that, though, as Shams Charania of The Athletic reported that “more punitive penalties for the luxury-tax system is a point of emphasis for the league and some team governors.”

There could be a lot more money available on the free-agent market next summer, too. Whereas only five teams entered this past offseason with any salary-cap space, Spotrac’s Keith Smith projects nine teams to have cap space next year, led by the Houston Rockets ($68.8 million), Detroit Pistons ($55.8 million), Indiana Pacers (448.9 million) and San Antonio Spurs ($48.9 million).

All four of those teams are in the early stages of a rebuild, so they might not interest win-now veterans. If they’re ready to expedite their rebuild and are willing to overpay veterans—much like the Sixers did with JJ Redick back in 2017-18—they could be a threat to steal some free agents.

Luckily, team president Daryl Morey has a strong track record with on-the-margins moves. Even though his decision to sign reigning G League MVP Trevelin Queen this offseason didn’t pan out, it bodes well that the Sixers are looking beyond the NBA ranks to take inexpensive swings of the bat.

Depending on how they fare in the playoffs this year, the Sixers could become an enticing landing spot for ring-chasing veterans, too. Getting to play with an MVP-caliber big man in Embiid and a star playmaker in Harden should help complementary players thrive in their respective roles.

This is all a problem for the future, but it speaks to the urgency the Sixers should feel this year. Championship windows open and closer faster than expected in the NBA, and the 2022-23 season may be the Sixers’ best chance to win a title for the foreseeable future.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.