Isaac Collins Is One Of The Many Unsung Heroes In Brewers Recent Surge

Milwaukee Brewers’ Isaac Collins reacts in the dugout after scoring a run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps)

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It really has needed to be seen to be believed……the Milwaukee Brewers’ late summer surge has given them the best record in major league baseball by a country mile. Players get hurt, and others step up. Then THEIR replacements step up as the club continues to reach new heights. Divine intervention can’t be ruled out as a contributing factor, especially with the passing of franchise icon Bob Uecker during the offseason.

The Brewers aren’t just a small market club – they’re a small market club that seems to defy the laws of physics. In my midseason team true talent rankings, which are based on batted ball exit speeds and launch angles, they ranked as the least impactful offensive club in the game. Despite this, they score plenty of runs, and by any measure, their pitching and defense are among the game’s best.

There are no MVP candidates on this team, even in a wide-open MVP race. Christian Yelich remains their best offensive player, and the presently injured Jackson Chourio is on his way to relieving him of this honor. Otherwise, their offense is simply a complementary cast of characters whose body of work is clearly greater than the sum of its parts.

The Brewer position player group just might, however, feature an award winner this season, as Isaac Collins is emerging as a dark horse contender for Rookie of the Year honors.

Collins is actually the perfect poster child for this group. You want prospect pedigree? Look elsewhere. He was the Rockies’ 9th round draft pick out of Creighton in 2019. After fairly pedestrian beginnings with Colorado, the Brewers plucked him on waivers prior to the 2023 season.

Each season I prepare a list of top minor league position player prospects based on their performance relative to league and level, and adjusted for age. It’s purely statistically based, with no adjustments for position or ball park. The rankings should be taken with a grain of salt – it’s basically a master follow list, and a starting point from which more traditional evaluation can take place.

Collins made my list exactly once, way down at #302, way back in 2021. He didn’t play in a major league game until after his 27th birthday, and turned 28 just a few weeks ago. This is not a guy the Brewers had pegged as a future MLB regular.

But here we are, and Collins is pretty much the every day leadoff man and left fielder for the best team in baseball. Through games of 8/15 (he was on paternity leave over the weekend), he was batting .288-.384-.448 with a 137 wRC+. In a relatively light NL field, he has a legitimate Rookie of the Year shot. But as I am wont to do in this space, let’s subject Collins to my batted ball-based methods to see how “real” his breakthrough is.

Right on the surface, it’s easy to spot some vulnerabilities. His 22.1% K rate is in the league average range, and his 12.1% walk rate is over a full standard deviation higher than league average. So far, so good – a nice K/BB profile as a foundation.

But Collins does not hit the ball hard – his overall 87.1 mph average exit speed is over a half standard deviation lower than league average. The shortfall is most significant in the most important area – fly ball exit speed, where his 86.6 mph average is over a full standard deviation lower than league average.

His batted ball type frequencies also show a key reason why his numbers are so good at present, and why they might not be moving forward. His 26.9% liner rate is off the charts high, over two full standard deviations higher than league average. Liner rates are notoriously volatile – only the Tony Gwynn types can maintain such a number for long, and with all due respect, Isaac Collins is no Tony Gwynn.

Collins has been extremely fortunate on all batted ball types thus far, with his Adjusted Fly Ball (51 vs. unadjusted 115 mark), Line Drive (93 vs. 135) and Ground Ball (103 vs. 137) Contact Scores falling short of his current production levels. His overall 134 Unadjusted Contact Score far outstrips his 83 adjusted mark.

Put bluntly, Collins “should be” batting .237-.331-.324 for a 90 “Tru” Production+ based on his actual batted ball mix. That’s a legit contributor, but no award contender.

I do not come here to dump upon Collins or the Brewers. They are a legit ballclub, and Collins is a legit big leaguer. But I don’t think I’m being out of line stating that there has been some good fortune evolved in the current prospects of both team and player. Scouring my brain for a comparable player, I come up with the Giants’ Tyler Fitzgerald, a big producer as a multipositional breakthrough rookie just last season. He way outperformed his batted ball metrics in 2024, and has settled in as a relatively ordinary primary 2B this season.

Rest assured that the Brewers don’t suddenly believe that Collins is an All Star level player. They’re getting the absolute most from him, and once they totally tap him out, they’ll move on to someone else – their minor leagues are absolutely loaded. But to get where you want to go in October, it’s about more than stars. It’s about complementary players who know their roles and perform them expertly. The Brewers are loaded with such players, and Collins deserves plaudits for his contributions.