Is The Next Stop For Migrants Over America’s Southern Border: Canada?

Judging by President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, if not by what has happened in the House with the takeover by the Republicans, there’s a rocky road ahead in Congress for the next few years. Hope for immigration reform is dim because the House has been effectively hijacked by an intolerant, stubborn, and cult-like minority of so-called Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans who are election deniers and largely beholden to former President Donald Trump. Compromise and reason are two words not easily found in their vocabulary. This has far-reaching implications for America, but even more so for American neighbors like Canada and Mexico. The problem of the southern border is only too well known as news flows from there daily. But now the American immigration problem appears to be spilling over into Canada with possible significant consequences for that neighbor.

Canada’s Sore Spot

The sore spot is the border crossing on Roxham Road where the state of New York borders with Canada’s French-speak province of Quebec. What is at stake at this time is a fairly manageable immigration issue dealing with unofficial migrants. However, as Quebec struggles with the influx of noncitizens crossing into its midst from the U.S. this could turn into a larger Canadian problem touching on national unity. In the past, as these irregular crossings increased, Canadian politicians haggled over who is to do what to halt this problem and accommodate the new arrivals using polite phrases such as “irregular crossings” and “undocumented immigrants” until the problem died down. Fortunately for them, the border issue died down largely because of the pandemic.

New Arrivals To Canada Different

This new influx of arrivals is different, however. For one thing, the migrants are being bused up to the border by American officials. They know enough about immigration law to avoid regular Canadian border ports of entry where they would virtually all be turned back and instead they cross into Canada via unofficial border crossing points like Roxham Road. Such crossings skirt around Safe Third Country treaty provisions requiring most such migrants to claim refugee status in the U.S. first. If the problem grows and if Congress is stymied and cannot implement broader immigration reforms, these migrants to Canada could become part of a national unity debate in that country because Quebec will increasingly have to push Ottawa to try to seal the border at Roxham and arrange with other Canadian provinces to offload some of the new arrivals there.

Quebec Unlike The Rest Of Canada

The problem is complicated because, unlike other provinces, Quebec runs its own immigration program with the exception that final approvals of Quebec immigrants regarding health and security matters are being made in Ottawa. In most instances, there have not been problems with this set up. However, at least in the case of the previous Quebec Investor immigration program, federal final approvals delayed the arrival of Quebec-approved investor immigrants for several years. This was a bone of contention between the two jurisdictions. Tensions between Ottawa and Quebec may now become more strained by this new development involving these migrants if it balloons out of proportion.

Historic Vision Of Canada Challenged

Whether through busing noncitizens up to Quebec, or simply not helping Canada cover the loophole in the Safe Third Country agreement to enable the return of these migrants back to the United States, such American shortcomings are problems for Canada. The arrival of these migrants into Quebec directly clashes with the province’s top immigration priority, namely 100 percent “francophone or francotropic” immigration. What that means is that the Province of Quebec, where almost 9 million people are French-speaking, wants to strengthen its French presence and fend off the threat of assimilation of its French-speaking population into the English-speaking sea surrounding the province in North America. Simply put, an unrestrained self-selecting flow of immigrants from the south does not accord with Quebec’s new vision for itself. In addition, the unrestrained influx of such migrants conflicts with a core concept particularly favored in French-Canada of an English-French partnership that initially formed the historical basis for the Canadian confederation.

America’s Issues Making Their Way Northward

It appears from more recent reports that New York City Mayor Eric Adams has backed off on helping migrants by providing them with bus tickets to travel northbound to the border. And there are indications that Canada and the U.S. are talking about changes to the Safe Third Country agreement and that such an agreement will not need Congressional approval. It may be that the problem can be addressed through such measures and through cooperation with the Biden administration. However, the increased traffic at the U.S. southern border and failure of Congress to come up with a more comprehensive immigration solution for America may very well be finding its way into Canada with the foregoing implications there.