Is The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Really Over?

NEW HOPE, JAMAICA – OCTOBER 28: A satellite view showed Hurricane Melissa approaching Jamaica as the sun rose near New Hope, Jamaica Oct. 28, 2025. (Photo by CSU/CIRA & NOAA/Anadolu via Getty Images)

CSU/CIRA & NOAA/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Atlantic hurricane season was more active than you may realize. It produced 13 named storms, three of which reached Category 5. Hurricane Melissa will go down in history as one of the strongest storms on record to make landfall in the Atlantic Basin.

As we approach the end of November, it is reasonable to ask whether the Atlantic hurricane season is actually over.

Hurricanes Can Form Outside Of The ‘Season’

The typical Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. In the past couple of decades, we have seen tropical storms and hurricanes form outside of that range.

As I wrote in 2023, a subtropical storm formed in January. The strongest January storm on record, Hurricane Alex, formed in 2016. Tropical Storm Ana (May 2021) is an example of a late spring system. Storms occasionally form during December but mostly remain over the ocean.

While we reflected on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina this year, 2005 was also the year that we ran out of storm names and had to use the Greek alphabet. Tropical Storm Zeta was the last storm of that year and formed in late December. It actually remained a named storm into January 2006.

Do Signs Point To The 2025 Season Ending?

In a “normal year,” the last named storm typically forms on Nov. 19, and the last hurricane, based on climatology data, develops on Nov. 15. If a lingering major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) forms, it is usually near the end of October. Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 storm on Oct. 28 and set all types of records.

The Friday morning Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center had some encouraging words. “For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days,” it stated. My own meteorological browse at long-range models also leads me to believe no signs of significant formation are on the horizon beyond a week. However, it is certainly too early to be conclusive.

My expert opinion is that the Atlantic hurricane season is “probably” over, and it is almost certain that no storms will impact the continental U.S. before Nov. 30. On Nov. 10, hurricane expert Bryan Norcross wrote on his Facebook page, “Further tropical development is unlikely this hurricane season. A wintertime weather pattern has settled over the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the tropical Atlantic. Hostile upper-level winds and dry air blanket the tropical zone.”

So Was The Season Quiet?

As I noted, the season produced 13 named storms and three Category 5 hurricanes. A press release issued in May said, “NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.” The government-issued statement went on to say, ”The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).” NOAA placed a 70% confidence estimate on those forecasts, and it pretty much nailed it.

University of Miami expert Brian McNoldy also added context for the “meteorological insider” measurement Accumulated Cyclone Energy. As Hurricane Melissa loomed for Jamaica, he wrote on Facebook, “There we have it… as of today, this hurricane season’s total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) will end up above average even if all activity ended tonight.” As of October 2028, McNoldy said that ACE was roughly 108% of average.” ACE is a metric used to quantify the activity of a hurricane season based on duration and strength of all named storms in the basin.

For many people in the U.S., these assessments may come as a surprise since most of the storms remained over the Atlantic Ocean. Some people have a tendency to conclude that the season was not “active” if storms did not make landfall in the U.S. I am sure people in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas will find that a bit short-sighted, but it is kind of human nature. There is an old saying, “If a tree falls in the forest, but nobody heard it, did it fall?”

Norcross summed things up nicely in his post. He wrote, “It’s actually quite common to get through a season without a hurricane landfall. It just hasn’t happened in the last 10 years.” He further pointed out that about 25% of the seasons have not had a U.S. landfall over the past 25 years. “Going back 75 years, the number is about 21%,” he added. “So on average, we should avoid landfalls every four or five years. It doesn’t work out that way in practice, of course. Landfall-free years tend to come in clumps when the steering pattern over the U.S. tends to push storms away.”