Is Tesla a Good Stock to Buy? Tesla Stock Forecast

For those who believe in Tesla’s long-term potential, now could be a good time to buy Tesla stock as it is currently trading nearly 73% below its all-time high, which could represent a good opportunity to buy the stock at a discounted price.

In addition to trading far below its peak value, there are several other factors that could positively impact the price of TSLA over time, primarily the growing number of electric vehicles sold.

In this article, we are going to examine whether Tesla is a good stock to buy right now and consult our algorithmic Tesla stock forecasts.

Is Tesla a good stock to buy?

Tesla is a good stock to buy if you believe that Tesla will continue to dominate the electric vehicle market, and there are solid arguments to support that outlook.

In the past two years, Tesla’s market share of sold battery-electric vehicles in the US remained above 50%, despite its competitors’ growing efforts to cut into the company’s dominant market presence.

According to data from Cox Automotive, the number of EVs sold in the past year has somewhat stagnated, going from 317,865 units in Q4 2023 to 365,982 in Q4 2024, a modest 13% increase.

Share of electric vehicles sold in the US (Tesla vs everyone else). Source: Cox Automotive

As of May 2025, Tesla slowed down its vehicle manufacturing – according to the Q1 2025 earnings report, Tesla produced 362,600 and delivered 336,700 vehicles in the first quarter of this year. When we compare these figures to Q1 2024, when Tesla produced 433,400 and delivered 386,800 vehicles, the decline in both production and deliveries is quite apparent.

The decrease in deliveries resulted in a -9% year-over-year (YoY) increase in revenue, which reached $19.3 billion in Q1. Despite the weak business results, the stock price increased by roughly 50% in the same period. 

The auto industry sold nearly 16 million light vehicles in the US last year. Source: Statista

There is significant room for growth for electric vehicles in the long term. If we assume that the number of electric vehicles in comparison to vehicles with internal combustion engines will continue to increase, Tesla could be in a prime position to take advantage of this trend.

Last year, the number of electric vehicles sold (1.2 million units) accounted for less than 8% of all light vehicles sold in the US (15,8 million units). By 2030, US legislators aim to increase the share of new EVs sold to 60 percent and to 67 percent by 2032.

Let’s say that electric vehicles will account for 50% of all light vehicles sold in the US by 2030 (with the number of vehicles the same as last year) and that Tesla will manage to maintain 30% of the total EV market share (down nearly double from 50% in Q2 2024). Under that set of assumptions, Tesla would sell a whopping 2.4 million units in 2030, three times as many as in 2022.

Should I buy Tesla stock now? Tesla stock forecast 2025-2030

According to our Tesla (TSLA) price prediction, the price of TSLA is predicted to increase by +6% in the next month, which could be a good opportunity to buy Tesla stock. Following the spike in May, our stock price forecast algorithm predicts a significant move to the bottom, with the share price eventually settling in the $600 range towards the end of 2025.

In the longer term, our algorithm forecasts a $385 price target for TSLA in 2030, which would mean that the stock would trade a mere 15% above its current price. 

At the time of writing, Tesla is the 8th largest company in the world, commanding a market cap of over $1.1 trillion, and one of the biggest components of the S&P 500 Index (with 1.87%). If its stock were to gain 15%, then the market cap would increase past $6 trillion, over double that of Apple, which is currently the largest public company in terms of market valuation in the world.

In fact, it could be argued that Tesla is already overvalued, as the company commands a bigger market cap than the next four largest automobile companies combined, including Toyota, BYD Auto, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen.

The bottom line

Despite the company-specific set of challenges and the broader bearish market environment, it could be argued that now is a good time to buy Tesla stock due to its relatively low price, as long as you believe that the company is in a good position to continue to dominate the EV market. To see how TSLA could perform in the truly long term, check our Tesla stock price forecasts for 2040 and 2050. To see how Tesla’s price movement affects its founder, check out our article breaking down Elon Musk’s net worth.

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