Is Take-Two stock a buy before GTA 6 drops?

Given the cultural impact of the Grand Theft Auto (GTA) series, it is hardly surprising that any rumors and news pertaining to GTA VI – the next installment in the franchise – has had a continuously strong impact on the stock of its publisher, Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO).

Indeed, much like the trailer announcement in late 2023 sent TTWO shares soaring, the 2025 confirmation that GTA 6 is still on schedule to hit the shelves this autumn triggered a substantial rally.

Take-Two stock is, at press time, 11.94% in the green in the year-to-date (YTD) chart, with the entirety of the 2025 rally accounted for in the latest extended session and the initial minutes of Friday’s trading. 

GTA VI hypes proves a stronger catalyst than a quarterly revenue miss

The impact of the upcoming video game is also showcased in the fact that TTWO stock’s rally came despite the firm’s latest report underperforming with revenue of $1.37 billion instead of the forecasted $1.39 billion.

Still, the rally can’t be entirely attributed to the GTA VI news as the earnings per share (EPS) also provided a welcome surprise coming in at $0.73 – 29.71% better than the predicted $0.56.

All things considered – including the recent UBS price target bump from $175 to $230 and Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE: MS) increase from $200 to $215 – TTWO shares are likely a savvy investment in the leadup to the release of the next Grand Theft Auto game.

Judging by the historical performance of video games in the series – GTA V, with 210 million copies shipped, is second only to Minecraft – investors are likely to work on taking a long position in Take-Two stock as the release date grows closer and hype increases.

However, such a situation and the broad enthusiasm should not dampen vigilance. 

Is TTWO stock a ‘buy the news, sell the game’ investment?

In the modern media landscape, it is always possible that a trailer, announcement, or the game itself will face backlash from any of the political sides, as has historically been attempted to various degrees of success with, for example, The Witcher 3, Dragon Age: The Veilguard, The Witcher 4, and is being attempted with Kingdom Come: Deliverance II. 

Under the circumstances, Take-Two Interactive, with regard to GTA VI, might prove a ‘buy the news, sell the game’ situation where it could be more beneficial to invest in anticipation than in the actual release.

With or without a backlash or similar shocks, history shows that buying months before the release is lucrative. Traders who invested $1,000 the day after Take-Two’s first earnings report published in 2013 – on February 6 at $14.44 – would have, on GTA V’s release day, had $1,177.29.

For those seeking to make a very long-term purchase, Take-Two might be worth keeping in the portfolio both before and after GTA VI is out since $1,000 invested at the start of 2013 would be worth $17,345.96 at press time on February 7.

Featured image via Shutterstock