Is RJ Barrett Making The Leap Into NBA Stardom?

“Taking the leap” is a phrase that is often uttered in basketball circles to identify those that are making major progress. Unfortunately it’s rare that there is a true and clear understanding of whether it’s a true leap into improvement until time has gone by.

RJ Barrett is currently a player that is being bandied about as being one of the many that are currently making that leap. His 46-point scoring outburst against the Miami Heat on Friday has the league on notice and the fan base riled up about the future star they may have in front of them. 

But that is why it’s important to dig a bit deeper to see if this is more of an anomaly or a sign of more to come from the young 21-year-old. 

Barrett’s rookie season was seen as a success by some in the fan base, but for most with rational eyes it was an outright disaster. He viewed the lack of inclusion on the NBA All-Rookie Team as a slight, but the evidence suggested it was valid:

But there were some glaring holes in his profile too, of most concern was his struggles shooting. He connected on just 32 per cent of his threes, 61 per cent of his free throws and 43 per cent of his twos, all well below league average. Add it up and among those with at least 1500 minutes played Barrett was last in effective field goal percentage (which accounts for the value of three-point shooting) at .445 and second-last in true shooting percentage (which factors in free throws).

That story by Michael Grange is a great look into the improvements Barrett made during that offseason to make himself primed for a bounceback sophomore campaign.

It didn’t start that way, though.

Barrett kicked off 2020-21 with a huge game against the Pacers but went on to have a string of uneven games that worried fans into thinking that maybe he didn’t have a pathway to stardom. That changed when January hit and Barrett started to get on a roll. He improved across the board, but most noticeably in his 3-point shooting which eclipsed the magic 40 percent marker. It seemed that RJ was primed to break out in a big way in his 3rd season. 

Similarly to his second season Barrett struggled at times during the top half of the season. He was red hot in October, showcasing his ability to attack the basket and handle the ball with a masterpiece of a game against the New Orleans Pelicans. 

That success was short-lived. He shot 37.7 percent from field goal range over the course of 19 games from November to December. He seemed lost, almost as if he couldn’t find a real placement in the offense. Randle’s role as the lead dog was becoming ineffective and the newly brought in pieces were trying to take on some of the offensive load. 

Barrett’s shot falling off didn’t help matters along with a stomach bug issue that impacted him for a few games. Shortly after he was put in the league’s “health and safety protocols” and it felt as if his third season may go to waste. 

And then…something clicked. He started getting downhill far more often and it started paying dividends immediately. The 21-year-old averaged 7.6 drives per game from the beginning of the season until Christmas Eve. From Christmas until now that number jumped to 14.1, which is amongst the top-20 in the NBA. 

He isn’t shooting drastically better on the shot attempts, but getting to the rack more often helps collapse the defense and gives Mitchell Robinson opportunities to clean up on the glass. 

It is a huge step that gives credence to the idea that he may be able to be the primary option on a winning team. Handling that offensive responsibility could allow for more natural cohesion compared to when Randle is handling the rock. 

Still, you look at the numbers and his efficiency is still not where you would like it to be. His effective field goal percentage is ranked among the bottom quarter at his position and he is only shooting at an above average rate from 3-point range. 

The thing that happens with Barrett is fans see the glimmers and the games that make them see a star. Analysts see a large sample size that shows a decent 3-point shooter from the wing, some size on defense and not much else. It’s why Seth Partnow did not put Barrett in “NBA Player Tiers” article and why he wasn’t on ESPN’s “Best 25 under 25” list. 

It’s why the Miami Heat game and the remaining stretch of games before the end of the season are so pivotal for the Knicks and Barrett. It’ll either give further sample size for the doubters or a bit more backing for the believers to make the case that this youngster is making his leap.