Is 2025 The Year That Canada Ends Their Stanley Cup Drought?

For the first time since 2017, five of the seven NHL teams that reside in Canada have reached the postseason.

Of those five teams, only two will face off against each other in the first round, and there is a scenario where the final four teams remaining could all be north of the border.

What are the chances that one of these five teams can lift the Stanley Cup? Here is a look into the teams with the best odds.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers and Winnipeg Jets are currently tied for the best odds for a Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup.

Edmonton likely has a slight advantage over Winnipeg for two reasons: they were a game away from winning it all last year, and they have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Their odds could potentially be above the Jets if it were not for the injury status of the team entering the postseason.

As of April 18, the Oilers’ top defenseman Mattias Ekholm was ruled out for the entirety of the first round. This, paired with Jake Walman and Troy Stecher’s day-to-day availability raises questions for the Oilers back end.

McDavid, Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman have all been battling injuries to end the year, but the greater challenge will be what is required from Evan Bouchard, Brett Kulak, and Darnell Nurse.

While Bouchard typically contributes offensively, finishing the regular season with 67 points, he will need to step up his ice time and defensive contribution. He is the only defensive player to finish with a higher Defensive Point Share than Ekholm if Ekholm were to play a full 82-game season.

There was already an elevated importance on the defensive game for the Oilers after goaltender Stuart Skinner struggled in net over the regular season. On the year, Skinner finished with a .896 save percentage and 2.81 Goals Against Average, both metrics he trailed Calvin Pickard in over the season.

Kris Knoblauch will likely start Skinner in Game One, but questions about the goaltender who took the Oilers to the Stanley Cup last year could arise quickly if he doesn’t have a strong start.

The good news for Skinner and the Oilers entering the first round is that the Kings’ score at just a league-average pace. For the Oilers to defeat Los Angeles for the fourth consecutive season, they will need to survive the 2nd-best defense in the NHL’s attempts of shutting down the Oilers offense.

If Edmonton advances, they will likely face their toughest challenge against the Golden Knights (assuming Vegas defeats Minnesota).

Ultimately, with the Oilers’ offensive firepower and postseason experience, they always have a chance of scoring their way to the Stanley Cup.

Winnipeg Jets

The way in which Winnipeg managed to receive the best-Canadian odds was simple: win the most games in the NHL.

Despite the potential “President’s Trophy curse” – which has occurred for 13 consecutive years – the Jets have the strongest statistical argument for success.

They finished the season with the third-best offense and the best defense in the NHL in terms of goals for and against. The team features five players with over 60 points, a defensive lineup all with positive plus-minus ratings, and a goaltender expected to win his second consecutive and third overall Vezina Trophy.

The primary argument against the Jets stems from last year’s playoff performance, particularly concerning goaltender Connor Hellebuyck.

Hellebuyck has established himself as the NHL’s best goaltender over the past three seasons, dispelling previous doubts about his consistency after a performance dip in 2020.

Despite having the best regular season of his career last season, his postseason left much to be desired. In their five game series against the Avalanche last year, Hellebuyck allowed 24 goals, giving him an .864 save percentage and a 5.23 goals against average.

This hasn’t been a career-long issue for Hellebuyck, who maintains a .910 save percentage across 45 playoff games.

However, his recent struggles, combined with a defensive breakdown that saw the Avs average 5.6 goals and 4.2 penalties per game, raise concerns.

After the team responded to adversity by jumping out of the gates with an 8-game winning streak to start this season, we will see if the easier matchup will help erase these playoff woes. Unfortunately for Winnipeg, a four-game losing streak by the St Louis Blues caused a last-minute flip for the second Wild Card, giving the Jets a more difficult matchup than what would have been the Minnesota Wild.

From what the Jets have shown the NHL all season, despite not being discussed as much as the Capitals, is consistency in all facets of the game.

If they are able to overcome the issues that plagued them in 2024, the Jets may have the best case for any team in the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Whether winning or losing, the Toronto Maple Leafs will always be under the spotlight.

Since their ability to escape was first found after 19 years in 2023, the bar for success has finally caught up to their budget.

But is this team truly different from rosters of years past?

It is difficult to significantly adjust the roster when four forwards are taking up nearly half of the salary cap percentage. However, General Manager Brad Treliving has compiled one of the best back-ends Toronto has seen in this window.

Led by 35-year-old Chris Tanev and Olver Ekman-Larsson, who joined the squad this offseason, the Maple Leafs have become a top-10 defensive team.

Reshaping their defensive pairings has also introduced more physicality throughout the lineup, allowing the “core four” to potentially justify their contracts.

Despite injuries preventing Auston Matthews and John Tavares from producing eye-popping numbers, William Nylander and Matthew Knies have led the offensive attack on both power play units.

The Maple Leafs’ success this season is largely attributed to Mitch Marner’s contract-year performance.

The 27-year-old winger finished the season with 102 points, which is a career high. Marner has stepped up, specifically in a season where Matthews only collected 33 goals.

However, Marner’s season and future in Toronto will likely be forgotten if he does not produce in the postseason.

Over Marner’s 9 seasons, he has averaged well over a point per game. When it comes to his 57 career playoff games however, he has fallen below that threshold, only collecting 50 points.

The ability to deal with the physicality of the postseason is a question that the entire roster has faced before, with those questions specifically being asked about Marner.

The Maple Leafs will be tested right away in the Battle of Ontario, with Brady Tkachuk and the Senators looking to push the intensity after the Senators broke their playoff drought.

The Maple Leafs should be able to handle the Senators in a lengthy series, which will lead into an even more physical matchup between the winners of the Lightning and Panthers in the second round.

With a roster lacking late round playoff experience, it will be difficult for first year Head Coach Craig Berube to do what he did in St Louis and break the Leafs’ curse.

So, similar to the Senators and Montreal Canadiens in the Eastern Conference, there may be too difficult of a road ahead for these teams to represent Canada on the biggest stage.

For the Canadian faithful, the breaking of the curse likely resides in the Western Conference, with the Oilers and Jets having the understandably favorable odds of northern teams entering the postseason.