Iran’s Expulsion of Afghans Deepens Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Crisis

Since March of 2024, Iran has expelled more than 1.2 million Afghans with nearly half a million deported in just two weeks following its June conflict with Israel. While deportations began 2023, they have accelerated sharply in recent months, exacerbating what is already one of the world’s most severe displacement crises.

Afghanistan is home to over 2.6 million officially registered refugees and 3.5 million internally displaced people. Most Afghan refugees reside in neighbouring Iran and Pakistan, and Iran hosts an estimated 4-6 million Afghans, many lacking formal legal status .

With more than 4 million Afghans live in Pakistan, almost 2 million illegally, Pakistan has also periodically tightened its immigration policies. Islamabad forced an exodus of Afghans in 2016 and 2017 when more than 600,000 and 150,000 were expelled, respectively. More recently, citing a rise of violent attacks and a strain on public services, Pakistan has forced out another 850,000 Afghans since 2023.

Though Iran has also cited security concerns and its conflict with Israel as the reason for the mass deportation effort (with Afghans scapegoated and accused of spying on behalf of Israel), it is Iran’s deteriorating economic conditions that have driven the expulsion of Afghans.

Runaway inflation and job scarcity have led to rising anti-Afghan sentiment within Iran. Many Afghans have faced violence, humiliation and abuse at the hands of Iran’s security personnel and in some cases, Iranian citizens. International human rights groups have also documented Afghans in Iran enduring years of physical abuse, unlawful detentions in inhumane conditions, slave labor and family separation.

And yet it was the dire economic conditions in Iran that drove Afghans to willingly leave in 2018 when 400,000 undocumented Afghans returned due to the lack of job opportunities in Iran. Most Afghan migrants have to take low paying jobs in Iran’s grey economy and the depreciation of Iran’s rial made it impossible to support their families back in Afghanistan—which widely uses the dollar. Some Afghans were making far less than $4 a day and could not survive.

Most Afghans that have remained in Iran only have a quasi-legal status. Those better off were formally recognised as refugees from earlier waves of displacement, while those who arrived primarily after the Taliban returned to power were census slip holders with limited access to housing, jobs, education and healthcare.

By 2022, 2.6 million Afghans were registered through this census slip holder process. But on June 5^th of this year, the Iranian government declared that these censor slips were no longer valid, ordering an estimated 2 million to leave the country, lacking legal recourse and humanitarian support.

Return to a Collapsing State

Those being forced to return to Afghanistan face an uncertain future. The Taliban-led government has little administrative capacity to reintegrate hundreds of thousands of returnees. Those returning have no homes to go to and face renewed displacement. The state has no revenues to support basic services and donors are no longer paying the bills. Health, water and sanitation services have halted, leading to a spike in preventable illnesses. Any basic services that the government does provide are mired in bureaucratic delays.

According to figures from a United Nations report, the poverty rate in Afghanistan is a staggering 97% with an unemployment rate of 69%– both worsening since the Taliban took over. For women, the situation is even more depressing with 90% of women excluded from the workforce, unable to work outside their homes.

Afghanistan’s formal economy has also effectively collapsed, and over one-third of Afghans face acute food insecurity, with 95% of Afghans reporting that they do not have enough to eat. Not surprisingly, the burden of malnutrition and calorie deficits falls most heavily on girls and women.

Compounding matters, terrorism continues to threaten Afghanistan. Most of the Taliban’s revenues have been drained to address the threat posed by the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP). Though the Taliban’s heavy-handed approach has resulted in a decline in ISKP attacks, the Taliban has not been able to prevent the ISKP from using its territory to launch attacks on other countries. While an influx of returning refugees has no direct effect on terrorist group capacity, large numbers of displacement and people living in poverty are conditions that terrorist groups can exploit.

The Taliban’s strained relationships with Iran and Pakistan further complicate reintegration efforts. As both countries continue deportations, Afghanistan’s already fragile stability may collapse under the pressure.