Iran Sees Ukraine War As Marketing Opportunity For Drones It Denies Supplying Russia

The U.S. has disclosed further evidence that Iran is arming Russia with armed drones for the war against Ukraine. While Iran maintains this is not the case, it sees the European war as a ripe opportunity to market its indigenous military drones to more countries.

On Tuesday, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the Department of Defense released a report with photographic evidence that conclusively confirms Russia’s use of Iranian-built drones in Ukraine.

Russia’s repeated and ongoing use of these drones has, of course, been public knowledge since September. However, this report provides further proof this is the case by comparing recently declassified images of Iranian drones used in attacks in the Middle East and the publicly available photos of the drones used in Ukraine. It leaves no doubt that Russia is using Iranian-built Shahed-131/136 loitering munitions (one-way, explosive drones) and multirole Mohajer-6 drones in this war.

U.S. officials explained that the report’s evidence aims to refute continued Iranian denials. “The main point is that Iran’s foreign ministry is denying that they are being used. What the U.S. and U.K. want to do is provide irrefutable evidence to a global audience where there may be more skepticism,” they said.

Iran officially maintains the easily disprovable line that it hasn’t supplied Russia with any drones since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Nevertheless, Iranian officials can barely conceal their delight at the marketing potential this war presents Tehran’s indigenous drone industry.

“Iran sees this as a great marketing opportunity,” one U.S. official noted.

Since Russia began using Iranian drones in the Ukraine conflict last September, senior Iranian officials have claimed that more and more countries are expressing interest in buying them.

“When images of Iranian drones were published a few years ago, they would say they’re photo-shopped. Now they say Iranian drones are dangerous, why do you sell them or give them to so-and-so,” said Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in October.

That same month, Iranian Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi boasted of the increasing demand for Tehran’s drones. “Today we have reached a point that 22 world countries are demanding to purchase unmanned aircraft from Iran,” he said.

And in February, a senior Iran Intelligence Ministry official, whose name was not disclosed, dubiously claimed that 90 countries were “queuing up” to buy Iranian drones, including an enormous order from China. “Our power has grown to levels where China is waiting in line to buy 15,000 of our drones,” that official said.

It’s not inconceivable that Iran could become a significant global exporter of cheap but effective drones.

However, as outlined in this space in October, Iran will likely prove incapable of replicating neighboring Turkey’s resounding success in the global drone market. Ankara has successfully exported its well-known Bayraktar TB2 drone to almost 30 countries since 2019, making its drone industry a veritable overnight success. That industry was given a huge boost in 2020 when the TB2 repeatedly showcased its capabilities in multiple conflicts from North Africa to the South Caucasus. Iran undoubtedly took notice.

The release of the DIA report is part of a U.S. push to win broader support for its sanctions against Iran and its drone industry. Such efforts will undoubtedly pose significant obstacles to any attempts by Tehran to export its drones to countries either allied or friendly with the U.S., which would risk incurring secondary sanctions for any dealings with Iran’s embargoed military industry.

Increased defense cooperation with Russia — exemplified by the planned Russia-based factory that will manufacture thousands of Iranian-designed drones — and shortcomings exposed by the Ukraine war will undoubtedly enable Iran to enhance and improve its drones. Still, only a limited number of countries are likely to buy them.