Iran counters Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk – ING

Despite an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, there has been limited impact on oil prices. ICE Brent settled almost flat yesterday, even after Ukraine fired a US-made long-range missile into Russia for the first time. At the same time, Russia also updated its nuclear doctrine, widening the scope for the use of atomic weapons, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

US crude oil inventories increase

“Eating into some of the geopolitical risks related to Russia-Ukraine were reports that Iran offered to stop increasing its stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60%. The International Atomic Energy Agency has said Iran has taken the first steps to cap production. If this occurs, it removes some supply risks related to Iranian oil when President-elect Trump enters office.”

“In the North Sea, the Johan Sverdrup field has resumed operations after a power outage led to a halt in production on Monday. The field produces around 755k b/d but will take some time to return to full capacity.”

“Numbers from the API overnight show that US crude oil inventories increased by 4.8m barrels over the last week, compared to expectations for a marginal draw. For refined products, gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 2.5m barrels and 700k barrels respectively. The more widely followed EIA report will be released today.”