Investors shifting to the front-loaded scenario – ING

Despite a mixed batch of US data last week, investors seem to be favouring a ‘front-loaded’ scenario for the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. This is premised on the view that if the Fed has decided that the time has come for rate cuts, then why not get rates back to some kind of neutral level as quickly as possible without sparking a panic, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

DXY drifting down to recent lows in quiet markets

“Currently, the market seems to be pricing a 41bp cut this Wednesday and has also brought forward and lowered the timing of the terminal rate in this easing cycle to something like 2.75% in just one years’ time. This is what the OIS forwards market is telling us currently.  Our house view remains that Wednesday’s decision is an exceptionally close call.”  

“With US rates continuing to fall but equity markets largely holding onto gains, the soft landing narrative remains dominant. This should be a bearish environment for the dollar – even though overseas markets do not look particularly attractive. For example, the weekend data dump from China showed another batch of sluggish data that – without more focused stimulus from Chinese authorities – suggests policymakers will again be missing their 5% growth target for this year.” 

“Today’s data calendar is quite light, but we do not rule out DXY drifting down to recent lows at 100.50/60 in quiet markets.”