Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes stands in the dugout before a baseball game against the Athletics Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Matt Freed)
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The regular season is in the books, so it’s time to take a final look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Yesterday, we looked at the AL Cy chase, today it’s the NL’s turn. Next week, we’ll look at MLB park factors in both leagues, followed by a look at the MVP races the week of 10/12.
If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher, and calculate the damage they “should have” allowed based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the lower the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher’s “Tru” ERA-, and then spread it across their innings bulk to determine their “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
A key point – only ERA-title qualifiers (162 or more innings) were considered. This weeded out the leader from the last monthly update, Phillies’ righty Zack Wheeler. The battle for the 10th and final spot was very tight, with the Reds’ Nick Martinez (9.3 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average) just nosed out. The absence of Padre righty Nick Pivetta (6.8 TPRAA) might also surprise you. Let’s get right to it.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Giants’ lefty Robbie Ray (9.4 TPRAA) takes the spot opened up by Wheeler’s absence from the list. His recovery from Tommy John surgery would appear to be complete. He still walks more batters than you’d like, but his contact management performance has improved significantly, moving into the league average range (95 Adjusted Contact Score). His 83 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was particularly good. Cub lefty Matthew Boyd (12.6 TPRAA) drops from 7th place in the most recent monthly update. It was comforting to see him rack up so many innings pitched this season, given his lengthy injury history. Boyd is a big pop up generator, and also limited fly ball authority quite well this season (89.8 mph average fly ball exit speed, 87 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). His mainstream numbers might have been shaky, but Padre righty Dylan Cease (15.8 TPRAA) had very solid batted ball-based metrics. He moves up from 9th a month ago. He was exceedingly unlucky on fly balls (129 Unadjusted vs. 89 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) and grounders (161 vs. 93). His presence here shouldn’t be a huge surprise – his 80 “Tru”- isn’t far off of his 87 FIP-.
Reds’ lefty Andrew Abbott (16.4 TPRAA) drops down one spot from his 6th place perch a month ago. Abbott’s the most extreme fly ball/popup guy we’ll discuss today, posting an 18.3 degree average launch angle this season. It’s pretty special to see a guy with such a profile having success in the launching pad that is Great American Ball Park. His 78 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is the best of any hurler in this Top Ten. Giants’ righty Logan Webb (17.5 TPRAA) vaults upward four spots from 10th place a month ago. His skill set is pretty unique – only #3 below had a lower average launch angle allowed than Webb’s 5.1 degrees. He led the entire major leagues in innings pitched, and paced the NL in strikeouts. Despite all of the ground balls, he’s been only an average range contact manager (102 Adjusted Contact Score), as he allowed harder than league average contact across all batted ball types.
THE TOP FIVE STARTERS
#5 – LHP Jesus Luzardo (Phillies) – 18.9 TPRAA, 78 “Tru”-, 92 ERA-, 69 FIP-
Luzardo finished with a rush, moving up three spots from the last monthly update. Outside of a couple of horrific outings, the lefty was steadily dominant all season, and gives his club a matching pair of aces entering the postseason despite the injury to Wheeler. This is another guy, like Ray, that you could look at for years and say, “what if he could be merely an average contact manager?” Well, that’s what he is now, after posting a 97 Adjusted Contact Score. He finished tied for 2nd in the NL in strikeouts with #1 below.
#4 – RHP Freddy Peralta (Brewers) – 20.7 TPRAA, 75 “Tru”-, 65 ERA-, 88 FIP-
The rest of the list moves up a spot from a month ago, with Wheeler opening the top slot. Peralta has way better raw stuff than Abbott, but follows a a similar fly ball/pop up-based blueprint for success. His 17.7 degree average launch angle allowed was exceeded by only Abbott among this group. The big difference between the two pitchers is Peralta’s massive bat-missing advantage, mitigated a bit by a relative shortfall in command. Only Ray walked more batters among pitchers discussed today.
#3 – LHP Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) – 24.6 TPRAA, 74 “Tru”-, 58 ERA-, 61 FIP-
Sanchez is an even more extreme ground baller than Webb – his 2.8 degree average launch angle allowed is by far the lowest of any pitcher discussed today. He will not repeat his standing as NL Contact Manager of the Year, as his 92 Adjusted Contact Score rates in the middle of this pack. He was fortunate across all batted ball types, and this in part caused his “Tru”- to be considerably less impressive than his more traditional metrics.
#2 – RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) – 26.9 TPRAA, 67 “Tru”-, 59 ERA-, 70 FIP-
Is it me, or did Yamamoto’s MLB breakthrough season almost totally fly under the mainstream radar? With an 81 Adjusted Contact Score, he is the NL Contact Manager of the Year. A solid if not overwhelming ground ball tendency and an ability to throttle fly ball authority (79 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score, fractionally behind Abbott for best among this group) were key drivers of that effort. He also pitched the fewest innings – by far – among MLB hurlers with 200 or more strikeouts. He’s peaking at the right time, and should be a focal point of his club’s effort to repeat as World Series champions.
#1 – RHP Paul Skenes (Pirates) – 31.7 TPRAA, 64 “Tru”-, 46 ERA-, 58 FIP-
Skenes was qualitatively the best pitcher in the NL in 2024, but didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify for my list. Wheeler had him beat overall once quantity was added to the mix. This year it’s Skenes’ turn, as Wheeler didn’t have the quantity. If Wheeler had enough innings pitched, Skenes would have won by the slimmest of margins, by 31.7 to 31.6 TPRAA. Skenes is really, really good at everything, but doesn’t have any single clobber-you-over-the-head strength. He’s really good, but not quite the best at bat-missing, walk-minimizing or contact-managing, but is very near the top in all of those aspects of pitching. His 85 Adjusted Contact Score wasn’t far off of Yamamoto’s Contact Manager of the Year pace. His future might be even better than his present, a scary thought.
Fangraphs WAR has the top five as Skenes (6.5 fWAR), Sanchez (6.4), Webb (5.5), Luzardo (5.3) and Yamamoto (5.0).