Implications Of A Russian Buyback Of S-400 Air Defenses From Turkey

The saga of Turkey’s Russian-made S-400 air defense missile systems may ultimately end with Russia buying them back, if a recent report proves accurate. Such a move could have significant implications for Turkey’s prospects of reentering the F-35 program and arms acquisitions in the wider Middle East.

After a precise drone and cruise missile successfully hit Saudi Arabia’s vital oil infrastructure in September 2019, Russia could hardly conceal its delight and self-satisfaction. Riyadh’s largely American-supplied air defense had failed to intercept any of the incoming munitions. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova sarcastically dubbed them “the brilliant U.S. air defense systems” that “could not repel an attack.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin had just delivered the S-400s that Turkey had ordered two months earlier and saw an opportunity to pitch such systems to Saudi Arabia again.

“We are ready to help Saudi Arabia protect their people,” he said at the time. “They need to make clever decisions, as Iran did by buying our S-300, as (Turkish President) Mr. Erdogan did by deciding to buy the most advanced S-400 air defense systems.”

“These kinds of systems are capable of defending any kind of infrastructure in Saudi Arabia from any kind of attack.”

Riyadh was already considering the S-400 at that time, as was neighboring Qatar. Despite its S-400 acquisition getting it booted from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and banned from buying any of those stealth strike fighters, Ankara remained adamant it would put these missiles into service regardless of strong Western objections.

Six years later, things could hardly be more different. Turkey never put the S-400s into service despite being adamant about doing so. As of last year, reports indicated it was considering a plan to place them in storage under U.S. inspection. Either way, they remain unused, collecting dust. Furthermore, as Turkey begins assembling its ambitious multilayered national Steel Dome air defense project, the Russian-made systems are conspicuously absent.

By the early 2020s, Saudi Arabia had decided against buying any S-400s, instead opting for the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, which it recently began introducing into service. Qatar stuck to buying U.S. MIM-104 Patriot PAC-3s, which proved effective against Iranian ballistic missiles in the June 25 attack but weren’t activated when Israel struck on September 9—although there’s no reason to believe S-400s would’ve fared any better.

Iran’s S-300 systems that Putin alluded to, delivered in 2016, were targeted in successive Israeli airstrikes on Iran in April and October 2024, with what was left likely destroyed during Israel’s 12-day war in June. They failed to shoot down a single Israeli aircraft.

And now, if an unconfirmed report in Turkish media proves accurate, Russia is considering buying back those S-400s it had convinced a leading NATO member to buy, sowing distrust and a political dispute in that rival alliance in the process.

“As the world grapples with war and crises, many countries seeking air defense systems have turned to Russia. Moscow, however, has no ready-made S-400s in stock, other than those it uses,” read the report in the Turkish media outlet Nefes on September 13, according to a machine translation.

“Consequently, Russia is reportedly considering repurchasing the S-400 systems it sold to Turkey in 2019 but Ankara is not using, and selling them to another country.”

The brief report did not reveal or speculate which countries Russia likely had in mind. It’s conceivable Russia may make such an otherwise seemingly desperate move to ensure it at least retains its two foremost arms importers: Algeria and India.

Algeria ordered two S-400 regiments in 2024, according to Russia’s Sputnik agency. Furthermore, Russian media reported in early September that Moscow is currently negotiating with India over supplying additional S-400s. New Delhi ordered five S-400 systems in 2018 for $5.5 billion but faced several delays since, primarily due to the subsequent full-scale Russia-Ukraine war that began in February 2022.

The Turkish S-400 contract was valued at approximately $2.5 billion and consisted of two systems along with at least 120 long-range 48N6 missiles. It’s unclear if Russia is willing to repurchase them for that price or if Turkey is even willing to sell them.

Removing all S-400 components from Turkish soil, which a resale to Russia would do, could reopen the F-35 program for Ankara and permit it to upgrade its air force with those fifth-generation jets. Before the 2019 ban, Ankara sought 100 F-35As. Today, it seeks 40 as it has since invested in developing its domestic stealth fighter, the TF Kaan.

For Moscow, buying back the systems and missiles could go a long way in enabling it to fulfill its contractual obligations to either Algeria or India, or both. It may well have calculated that while it can afford to lose countries like Turkey and Iran as arms clients, it can ill-afford to potentially lose either Algeria or India, given their relatively consistent imports spanning several decades.

Tellingly, the day before the Nefes report came out, Iran’s Ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, gave an interview with Iranian media in which he denied Tehran had even sought the S-400 to bolster its air defense. “Someone must provide a document showing that the Islamic Republic of Iran has requested to purchase the S-400 from Russia,” he was quoted as saying.

While Iran was widely believed to have requested, or at least shown interest in, S-400s as part of its burgeoning military-technical cooperation with Russia since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, there’s no doubt that it ordered Su-35 Flanker fighter jets. According to one reputable Iranian journalist, Tehran even paid for 50 Flankers by 2021. Many believed that the Su-35s Russia originally built for Egypt under a 2018 order subsequently cancelled by Cairo would at least partially fulfill the Iranian order. In the meantime, Russia delivered at least some of those fighters to Algeria in early 2025, seemingly dashing any hopes Iran might receive even a modest squadron in the foreseeable future, if ever.

If the Nefes report proves true—and again that’s a big if—and Russia seeks to buy back S-400s from Turkey to keep its traditional customers onside, that could further bode ill for a delivery of Su-35s or any other advanced weapons systems to Tehran.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2025/09/16/implications-of-a-russian-buyback-of-s-400-air-defenses-from-turkey/