If You Like Close Games, You’ll Love The Cleveland Guardians

If Terry Francona had any hair it would all be gray by now, and the Cleveland Guardians are only 19 games into the 2023 season. Nineteen grueling, torturous games.

A three-time American League Manager of the Year (all with Cleveland), and the reigning AL Manager of the Year, Francona, in the early weeks of the 2023 season, has had to maneuver and orchestrate his defending Central Division champions through a tangled labyrinth of one-run games.

Thursday was a welcomed off-day for Francona and his players, who needed a break from their exhausting, bullpen-gouging slog through the early weeks of the season.

The Guardians’ record of 10-9 doesn’t begin to reflect the closeness of the contests. Fifteen of Cleveland’s last 16 games have been decided by two or fewer runs, and 12 of the Guardians’ 19 games overall have been decided by one run.

Here are the scores of the Guardians’ last 17 games: 2-0, 6-5, 12-11, 4-3, 6-4, 5-3, 3-2, 7-6, 3-2, 11-2, 4-3, 4-3, 6-4, 7-6, 4-3, 1-0 and 3-2.

Cleveland’s 12 one-run games, which is 65% of all the games the Guardians have played, is by far the most of any American League team. At the start of play Friday no other American League team had played more than eight one-run games. The American League average was four. Cleveland has played 12.

Adding to Francona’s angst is that his team has also played four extra-inning games, but Cleveland has won all four of those games. Last year the Guardians had a record of 28-17 (.622) in one-run games and 13-6 (.684) in extra-inning games.

That doesn’t make playing those kinds of games any easier, on the players, or the manager.

“When you’re playing these kind of games. . . we don’t have much wiggle room,” said Francona.

Cleveland normally doesn’t need much wiggle room in close games, or extra-inning games. The Guardians have one of the best bullpens in the league, anchored by All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, who led the majors with 42 saves last season, while holding opposing hitters to a .167 batting average.

Clase is off to a solid start this season, but his setup man, James Karinchak, is not. Karinchak is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA. He has struggled in trying to adapt to baseball’s new pitch clock rules, although he is averaging 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings, while holding opposing hitters to a .211 batting average.

A bigger concern for Francona is the health of his pitching staff. Starters Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are both on the injured list, McKenzie with a Teres Major strain and Civale with a strained oblique. Reliever Sam Hentges, one of the best left-handed relievers in the American League last season, has yet to throw a pitch this season due to shoulder inflammation.

Hentges absence has been magnified by all the close games the Guardians have played, games in which Hentges could have made a difference. In 57 appearances last season Hentges had a 2.32 ERA and averaged 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings while holding left-handed hitters to a .143 batting average and right-handed hitters to a .215 average.

Pitching-wise, it has been a disjointed, injury-hampered start to the season for the Guardians, who, just 19 games into the season, have already used 14 different pitchers, none of whom are McKenzie, who is Cleveland’s No. 2 starter behind staff ace Shane Bieber.

The Guardians have also been challenged by a schedule in which over half their games (10 of 19) thus far have been against the Yankees and Mariners, winners of 99 and 90 games last season.

Cleveland’s biggest challenge for now, however, is figuring out how to score more runs, which, in turn, should help reduce the number of one-run games that can over-burden its bullpen, and its pitching staff in general.

The Guardians rank 12^th in the American League in runs scored and 15^th in home runs. Last year they ranked 12^th in runs and 14^th in home runs. But those dismal rankings were offset by an elite pitching staff and bullpen. In 2022 the Guardians ranked fourth in the AL with a 3.46 ERA. Thus far this season they rank eighth with a 3.89 ERA.

The difference there is that Cleveland has been missing two of its five starters, McKenzie and Civale.

The bigger issue, however, is the lack of consistent offense from Cleveland’s hitters. The Guardians are 4-0 in extra-inning games, but only 6-9 in nine-inning games.