If The Pittsburgh Pirates Have A Plan, It Isn’t A Good One

I’ve been on the baseball beat for Forbes.com for a few years now, and I honestly don’t believe the Pittsburgh Pirates or one of their players have been featured even once. You see, I tend to focus on outstanding players, contending clubs, etc., and the Bucs haven’t had or been those things in quite awhile. Sure, they have to be included in my team true-talent rankings (usually at or near the bottom), and Bryan Reynolds was a legit down-ballot MVP contender in 2021, so he got a little ink. Otherwise – nada.

Recent events – or lack thereof – dictate that I temporarily rescind my Pirate embargo. The manner in which they have handled Reynolds, their best player, this offseason simply defies description, and deserves attention.

There is a time and place for losing. Small and middle-market clubs, though they don’t need to tank, certainly must retool/retrench/rebuild from time to time. The Oakland Athletics were in the mix in the AL West for a few years, and then sold off everyone in the 2021-22 offseason as their best players approached free agency. It’s not pretty in the short term, but they did scoop up some prospect depth when they dealt away the likes of Matt Olson, Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman and friends, and will likely be relevant once more in two to three years, and will ramp up their payroll a bit accordingly.

The Milwaukee Brewers have never had a very high payroll, and have opted to save their shekels for their stars, while cleaning out their mid-level player salaries on an ongoing basis. Even top closer Josh Hader was moved at last year’s deadline, and Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong were moved this offseason, while they bought low on William Contreras and Jesse Winker. The Rays spend almost no money, and are always relevant because of their uncanny ability to piece together a quality pitching staff on a budget. So it can be done.

Then there are the Pirates. After Barry Bonds left town, they famously posted a below .500 record in an amazing 20 consecutive seasons from 1993-2012. For a few seasons afterward, their Andrew McCutchen-led squad was downright respectable, making the playoffs three consecutive times from 2013-15, though never winning a postseason series. They then flirted with .500 through 2018, when they went 82-79 before the bottom dropped out.

Quite honestly, that 2018 winning record was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the Pirates. It took place a year after the first defining transaction of their teardown, the trade that sent Gerrit Cole to Houston for a four-player package featuring Joe Musgrove and Colin Moran.

Any way you slice it, it was a disastrous trade. Moving Cole wasn’t tremendously controversial, but they should have been able to get more for two years of control of a potential staff ace. There were a couple of complicating factors, as there usually are with this team.

First of all, Cole, a former overall #1 draft pick, hadn’t pitched like a true ace in Pittsburgh. He’d been durable, but his 3.50 ERA (112 ERA+ per Baseball Reference) was good but not nearly great. (His 3.27 FIP was a bit better.) As soon as he hit the ground in Houston, he was a different cat. This is kind of the moral of the story, a recurring theme, as we shall see. They (including Musgrove, after being dealt to the Padres) get better when they leave Pittsburgh. Since Cole’s departure in 2018? A 3.00 ERA (142 ERA+), matched by a 3.01 FIP. Cole never pitched up to his considerable stuff until he got out of town.

So now the Pirates are cruising through that unexpectedly competitive 2018 season, and at the deadline decide that the perennially disappointing (not to mention highly paid) Chris Archer is their missing piece. So they pony up top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow (who had been awful in a few stints with the Pirates) OF Austin Meadows and a PTBNL (who hilariously turned out to be top pitching prospect Shane Baz) to the Rays to get him. Archer was predictably bad in Pittsburgh, while Glasnow immediately got well in Tampa. Rinse, repeat.

Reynolds has been about the only thing that has gone right for the Bucs since 2019. He came over from the Giants prior to that season in the McCutchen deal, and quickly moved in as Pittsburgh’s best player. 2021 was his best season (he finished 11th in the MVP voting, but should have finished higher), and has been one of the game’s most highly sought trade commodities over the last two offseasons.

You would think that the Pirates could almost do no wrong here – keep him if you don’t get a satisfactory package, and deal him if you do. Or pony up and sign him to a long-term deal. The one thing that they must do, however, is value him appropriately when making those decisions. What have they done instead?

Well, they low-balled him with a six-year, $75M extension offer while simultaneously making ridiculous asks befitting of a player worth twice as much or more for him in trade discussions.

This is what bad organizations do. If you’re going to ask the world for a player in a trade, and the player is willing to sign for, say, 80% of that value or less in a long-term deal (as Reynolds reportedly is, or at least was), then sign the guy already. There was a whole lot of room here for a successful outcome from the club’s perspective – and the Pirates either weren’t aware of it or were afraid to pull the trigger. The longer they waited, the more Reynolds has dug in and been unwilling to sign at any price with the Pirates, and at some point they will be forced to take a substandard deal for him.

And the hits keep coming. The club wisely locked up 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, but haven’t yet been able to develop his bat. His struggles to elevate the baseball have been legendary. And before finally beginning to put it together in the second half of 2022, righty Mitch Keller appeared poised to become the next Glasnow, alternately dominating at AAA and being dominated in the majors. His arrow is up for now.

Even their small decisions have been eyebrow-raisers. Why do the Pirates routinely get strafed in the Rule 5 draft? Why are promising arms like Miguel Yajure and Bryse Wilson allowed to get away? This club buys high and sells low. Diego Castillo has legit power…..should he have been allowed to walk out the door? Will Kevin Newman thrive in Cincinnati? In other organizations such departures happen all the time, without regret. In Pittsburgh, it seems they all get better after they leave.

The Bucs have made some additions this offseason – fortysomething starter Rich Hill, glove-only catcher Austin Hedges, professional hitters Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi and wish-and-hope types like OF Connor Joe and RHP Vince Velasquez have entered the chat. None of them will change the sad arc of this franchise. This club will not begin to improve in earnest until the fundamental theme of the last few seasons is reversed – players need to start getting BETTER when they come to Pittsburgh.

Tomorrow, a recent perennial loser that is showing some signs of turning around its near-term fortunes this offseason.