If Paul Reed’s Sample Size Was Too Small, Perhaps He Should Have Played More

I have never coached an NBA game, nor anything ever close to it. Nor have I ever coached any game, at any level, ever. This is extremely disqualifying when it comes to trying to pass off any critique of an NBA head coach as being an informed one.

However, even with that extremely important caveat in toe, there does seem to be a disconnect in the logic that Philadelphia 76ers head coach Doc Rivers used to justify his big man rotation over the final few weeks of the regular season and the majority of their playoff run.

After the Los Angeles Lakers made the decision to waive DeAndre Jordan just before the playoff eligibility deadline, the 76ers picked him up to fill the vacancy created by Andre Drummond’s inclusion in the James Harden/Ben Simmons trade. Paul Millsap was a fellow returning piece in that trade, but although he has moved into a centre role in the latter stages of his career, Millsap stands only 6’7 still, not ideal for the task. The 6’11, 265lb Jordan has the distinct size advantage, and was preferred over Willie Cauley-Stein, whose contract was terminated to sign Jordan.

That size advantage was seemingly also the crux of Rivers’s decision to play Jordan over his other potential minute-fillers. Beyond Millsap, the options behind MVP candidate Joel Embiid included centre Charles Bassey, a rookie second-round pick, and second-year athlete Paul Reed. The relative inexperience of the pair was also part of the core of the argument against them getting significant responsibilities (or for the most part, any minutes whatsoever) in the season’s final stretch.

To be sure, the pair are relatively unseasoned, not just when compared to incredibly veteran presences such as Millsap and Jordan, but when compared to anyone. In his two seasons of NBA work, Reed has managed to appear in only 64 games and 479 regular season minutes, spending most of his time instead in the G-League; in his one year, Bassey managed only 23 games and 168 minutes. For comparison’s sake, two-way player Charlie Brown – whom casual Sixer fans might not even have heard of – played 162,

However, while that was the case, it did not have to be. A degree of inexperience was unavoidable, but it was also in part artificial, a conscious choice made at a time when other options were available.

The excess of games that take place in an NBA regular season may ostensibly be about jockeying for position in the postseason seedings, yet what it is also offers is a long testing period. Notwithstanding in-season roster changes, there is plenty of time available to run out every line-up, match-up and rotation plausible, and the heightened awareness in the modern era of the benefits of extended rest mean benches are getting used more than ever before in league history. Considering the fragility of Embiid in his career to date, the Sixers know that as well as anyone.

There was ample opportunity, then, to give these players a lengthier run-out and time to acclimatise to the pace and space of NBA basketball. Reed in particular has been good in his limited opportunities; the 2020-21 G-League MVP has averaged 15.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, a hefty 3.2 steals and 2.0 blocks per 36 minutes across the first two seasons of his NBA career, on a .555 true shooting percentage with ever-improving foul rates. These would not have been token, participation-trophy minutes. He merited them.

Jordan’s experience sees him bring more than a decade of experience of NBA film rooms, instruction and developed understandings of footwork and conditioning that the younger Reed does not have. Fine. Noted. Same with Millsap. Yet in lacking for the mobility of his youth, Jordan is not able to do much about that. Knowing where to be is of no great value if you are late getting there.

Further to that, the possessions in which Jordan is on the court, but did not (or could not) feature, must count against him too. These are particularly to be found on the offensive end, where his effectiveness was particularly tied to his explosion, which, unless he has a running start, he does not seem to have.

It is not a unique observation to note that Jordan, in the latter stages of his career, has seemingly lost enough of the mobility that once made him so special that he struggles to play a sizeable role against quality opposition. Hopefully, he has a second wind left in him. But until such time as we see one, the couple of positional things that he does well that may not be easily measured do not offset that which he does not to.

Other options available to the Sixers, and Paul Reed in particular, could also do those things too, with more on top. The coaching staff clearly knew what they had, else he would not have played in every postseason game, in a clean-up role. And if Reed did not have enough experience for the coaching staff to be comfortable with him out there in a bigger role – and perhaps entirely assuming Jordan’s minutes – they could have helped themselves with that by not leaving it so late.