Hurricane Season Starts June 1st

As the National Hurricane Center monitors a potential storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Hurricane Season starts on Sunday. This season grabs our attention because its storms often impact the U.S. It is a time of year that brings additional anxiety, concern, and caution to many coastal regions, and increasingly, inland ones too. NOAA and other expert organizations have predicted another potentially active season, but it is important to remember that it only takes one hurricane to alter lives or regions. As June 1st approaches, another season also begins. It’s called “clickbait” season.

A fisherman uses bait to lure a fish to the line. Social media has introduced us to different type of bait. I will define clickbait as the inclusion of provocative, sensational, or emotionally-appealing content in social media posts, headlines, videos, and other platforms with the intent of luring clicks, shares, or likes. Merriam-Webster’s online dictionary defined it as, “Something (such as a headline) designed to make readers want to click on a hyperlink especially when the link leads to content of dubious value or interest.” There are even scholarly studies on clickbait, how it is utilized, and the psychology behind it.

Irrespective of how we choose to define it, many meteorologist cringe during hurricane season because it is often utilized. People grab a single model run and post that a hurricane is going to be in the Gulf or off the coast of the Carolinas in two weeks. As good as our long-range forecast models have become, they often produce storms that come and go from run to run. It’s generally a bad idea to consume information from a single deterministic model run anyhow. Better practice involves using information from multiple models, their ensemble of information, and over reasonable time windows. Bob Henson and Jeff Masters have provided a great “101” on hurricane models and how they performed last year.

Dr. Bradford Johnson is a meteorologist and professor of geography at Florida State University. He nailed it when he wrote, “While this is a great opportunity to think about your preparation for the coming months, I will provide a word of wisdom. Anyone posting about potential storms two weeks from now is not giving you actionable information. They are farming for your clicks.” He went on to point out that this is true in May or September, and end with, “Seek credible sources.”

Weather model information is publicly available, but the context for understanding them is more limited. “Wishcasting” is something that I see during hurricane season and during the winter. People get excited about a potential weather scenario and post model outcomes that align with their wishes. We are also in the era of “monetized” social media and Internet activity, which drives clickbait. Other motives may include growing followers, harvesting affirmation, and deliberately sowing confusion.

As hurricane season progresses, it is important to remember to follow the W.I.N.D approach – Weigh the validity of the information, Identify the source, Note inconsistencies with consensus forecasts, and Decide whether it is harmful to share. My other advice is also pretty simple. Know what the official forecast is from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.