Topline
A tropical depression and another disturbance right behind it in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is bringing a potentially unprecedented double-whammy early in hurricane season, just weeks after forecasters predicted a below-average season.
A newly formed tropical depression—dubbed Tropical Depression Three—is likely to intensify into … [+]
Key Facts
A newly formed tropical depression—dubbed Tropical Depression Three—is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Bret in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters predict the system will reach tropical storm intensity by late Monday before strengthening into the season’s first Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday.
The storm could affect the Lesser Antilles—islands including Barbados, Dominica and Saint Lucia, among others—as early as this weekend, with the National Hurricane Center also advising Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to monitor the storm.
Forecasters are also monitoring another system developing closely behind Tropical Depression Three, which if it develops into a named storm would be Tropical Storm Cindy.
The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 50% chance of forming into at least a tropical depression over the next week, noting conditions appear “favorable” for additional development.
Surprising Fact
Tropical systems in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean are all but unheard of during the month of June, with long-track storms from the region typically not seen until the heart of hurricane season in August and September. The last and only time an Atlantic storm formed in June in the tropical Atlantic and went on to reach hurricane strength was the 1933 Trinidad hurricane, Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach tweeted.
Key Background
Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, after Klotzbach and Colorado State forecasters predicted a below-average season—breaking with a stretch of extremely active seasons as of late. Meteorologists cite the formation of El Nino—which increases storm-suppressing wind shear—as the main reason behind the forecasts, even though the Atlantic Ocean is also dealing with record-high sea surface temperatures. NOAA forecasters said the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through November 30, had a 40% chance of being a near-normal season. NOAA predicted somewhere between 12 and 17 total named storms in 2023, and of those storms the agency said five to nine could become hurricanes—storms with winds of 74 mph or higher. The agency also predicted one to four major hurricanes—those that are Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or greater.
Big Number
14. That’s how many named storms formed during the 2022 hurricane season, according to NOAA. Eight of those storms became hurricanes and two intensified into major hurricanes.
Further Reading
First Day Of Hurricane Season Brings Potential Tropical Storm In Gulf (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/anafaguy/2023/06/19/hurricane-season-looking-more-like-august-than-june-as-systems-brew-in-east-atlantic/