Hurricane Season Is Suddenly Alive

I suppose Mother Nature decided that she did not want to be upstaged by NASA sending a very large rocket to the Moon. Like many science-attentive folks, my attention was on the planned launch of Artemis this coming week. However, the National Hurricane Center is watching four areas of concern. As a meteorologist, the tropics have my attention too. Here’s my perspective on the next few days.

The tropics have been quiet. Dry air, Saharan Dust, and an unfavorable large scale atmospheric pattern have been the primary culprits. Bob Henson and Jeff Masters wrote a piece for Yale Climate Connections asking will we go “0 for August.” However, late August is typically a ramp up period for the season, and this year appears to be no different. Let’s start with the system with the greatest chance of development. According to the Sunday morning Tropical Weather Outlook, a system in the Central Tropical Atlantic has a 70 percent chance of formation within the next 5 days. The National Hurricane Center writes, “A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean…. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while moving toward the west and then west-northwest at around 10 mph, toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands.”

Another low pressure system in the Central Atlantic is being watched and is located 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. It has only a 10 percent chance of formation because of the combination of dry air and strong upper-level winds, according to the National Hurricane Center. With slightly greater chances of formation within 5 days (20%), an area of low pressure could slowly become better organized as it drifts towards the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula. Finally, a tropical wave is expected to move off the coast African early this week. This “seedling” will be need to be watched as it moves into the Main Development Region (MDR) of the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Within 5 days, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance a further development.

Over the next few days, you will start hearing more about the tropics and things like Invests (currently watching 91L). As mentioned earlier, this is the time of year that we expect more activity. Seasonal outlooks were bullish on calling for above-average activity, particularly with a La Nina in place for the third year in a row. La Nina years tend to be associated with more active Atlantic seasons. NOAA hurricane expert Eric Blake tweeted, “I wonder how many thought on August 28, the Atlantic would be sitting at 9% of the average ACE-to-date with a moderate La Niña – and still be 0 for August. Incredible really!” According to a NASA website, “Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the Atlantic hurricane seasons.” It is basically a jargony-metric used by us scientists to express the energy used over the lifespan of a tropical system. Though ACE gets thrown about a lot on our geeky hurricane expert groups and list serves, Hurricane Andrew reminded us 30 years ago that it really only takes one storm to make for a deadly, destructive, and memorable season.

Look, I don’t cheer for storms so I am grateful things have been quiet. That means people and their property are not in harms way. The 2020 and 2021 seasons were brutal enough. However, the trained meteorologist in me knows that given the emerging conditions in the Atlantic, that good news would not last for long. It remains to be seen if we reach above-average numbers for the season, but we certainly could see a storm or two or three that could impact your life before December so review your plans of action now.