Topline
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center think a disturbance in the middle of the North Atlantic will turn into a cyclone this week, setting the stage for what could become the first tropical storm in almost two months, as the Atlantic Ocean faces a historic lull in summertime storm activity despite forecasts calling for a busy hurricane season.
Winds blow through palm trees during a 2006 tropical storm in Miami Beach, Florida.
Key Facts
The weather system has a 50% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone—a category that includes tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes—in the next two days, and an 80% chance of developing over the next five days, the NHC said in a Monday outlook.
The system is currently “producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers,” according to the NHC, and it’s expected to gradually develop this week as it moves toward the Caribbean at a speed of five to 10 miles per hour.
If the disturbance eventually turns into a tropical storm, it’ll be the first since early July and the fourth this year, earning the name Tropical Storm Danielle (tropical storms need wind speeds of 39 to 73 miles per hour, compared to milder tropical depressions).
The NHC is also tracking three other disturbances in the Atlantic and Caribbean, including systems near West Africa, Bermuda and Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, but forecasters give them a less-than-50% chance of developing into cyclones in five days.
Surprising Fact
If no tropical storms or hurricanes develop before Thursday, this will be the first August since 1997 without a named storm, Bloomberg and the Washington Post note. Over the last 30 years, the Atlantic has typically faced its sixth named storm by August 29, with two hurricanes usually developing by late August, according to NHC figures.
Key Background
The Atlantic hurricane season has been in a months-long lull: The last named storm in the Atlantic Ocean—known as Tropical Storm Colin—formed off the Carolinas on July 2, and a handful of potential tropical storm threats have fizzled this month. No hurricanes and only three tropical storms have developed this year, compared to four hurricanes and seven tropical storms by this point in 2021, which was one of the most active hurricane seasons on record. The summer slowdown comes even though forecasts earlier this year suggested the 2022 hurricane season could approach the 21 named storms that were tallied in 2021. Some experts have linked the two-month lull in storm activity to a wave of dust that has blown from the Sahara Desert to parts of the Atlantic, bringing both dry air and high wind shear (or changes in wind speed), both of which tend to hamper hurricane development.
What To Watch For
The hurricane season hasn’t reached its zenith yet, and a spike in activity is still possible. Hurricane and tropical storm activity usually peaks in mid-September, the NHC says, and last year’s season also faced a lull for part of July and August. Earlier this month, forecasters at Colorado State University predicted 18 named storms—including eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes that reach category three status—will form in the Atlantic this year, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted 15 to 21 named storms.
Further Reading
Hurricane Activity Could Skyrocket In Coming Weeks After July Lull, Forecasters Say (Forbes)
What’s Wrong With The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season? (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/08/29/hurricane-season-has-been-unusually-quiet-but-forecasters-are-watching-a-potential-cyclone/