Hurricane Forecasters Predict First Below-Average Season In Almost A Decade

Topline

Meteorologists at Colorado State University are expecting a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season this year, which would break a nearly decade-long stretch of above-average seasons that dealt a series of devastating blows to the U.S. coastline—but the forecast’s authors cautioned “there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook.”

This 25 September, 2004 NOAA satellite image shows Hurricane Jeanne moving over the eastern coast of … [+] Florida. (Photo credit should read HO/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

The forecasters predict 13 named storms including hurricanes and tropical storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will form during the 2023 season—slightly below the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

There hasn’t been a below-average season in the Atlantic basin since 2015, when no hurricanes and only two named storms made landfall in the United States.

Still, Colorado State believes there is a slightly enhanced risk of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. this year—forecasters put the odds of a major strike anywhere along the U.S. coastline at 44%, just a smidge above the 43% seasonal average.

The main factor in the below-average forecast is an anticipated shift to an El Niño climate pattern, which usually leads to storm-ripping wind shear across much of the Atlantic basin that suppresses hurricane development.

But there is another significant factor at play: Waters in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean “are much warmer than normal,” which supports the formation of more hurricanes—leading forecasters to say this season’s outlook is lower-confidence than normal.

What To Watch For

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Contra

The outlook noted conditions appear similar to the 1969, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2015 seasons, and the activity recorded in those seasons varied wildly. Most were quiet, but 2012 was one of the most active in history, capped by Hurricane Sandy devastating the Northeast. The 1969 season, meanwhile, is when Hurricane Camille flattened much of the Mississippi coastline while making landfall as one of only four Category 5 hurricanes to hit the U.S. since record-keeping began in 1851.

Crucial Quote

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” Colorado State meteorology professor Michael Bell warned.

Key Background

The past few hurricane seasons were among the most active in history, and were particularly devastating to the United States. Five of the seven costliest hurricanes to ever impact the U.S. came in the past six seasons (Harvey, Maria and Irma in 2017, Ida in 2021 and Ian in 2022), while the 30 named storms that formed in the 2020 season were the most ever recorded. The immensely busy seasons that have become commonplace in the 21st century caused the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to raise its definition of an “average” season in 2021 from 12 named storms to 14, while listing seven hurricanes as the norm instead of six (the average number of major hurricanes stayed flat at three). Climate experts have said increased hurricane threats may be one of the earliest and most noticeable impacts of climate change, along with the likes of record-breaking heat waves and historic floods.