Fire at the Afipsky refinery in Russia, August 28, 2025
Photo: Astra
Ukraine is waging a campaign to destroy Russian oil refineries. It is squeezing the Kremlin, raising the cost of its war. The drone campaign also reflects Ukraine’s expanding reach across Russia, as Moscow struggles to protect its vast territory.
Kyiv began targeting Russian oil refineries in late 2023. The Biden administration, wary of rising oil prices, expressed frustration over these strikes. Lacking Western long-range weapons, Ukraine invested in its own fleet of long-range drones. “If we are not invited to NATO, then we must build NATO on our own territory,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told The Economist in February.
Over time, the attacks grew more precise, and by mid-2025, they were causing fuel shortages across Russia. By late August, Ukraine had succeeded in disrupting at least 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, according to Reuters. The Economist put the figure even higher, at nearly 20%.
The fuel shortages also increase the social pressure on the Kremlin as ordinary Russians increasingly feel the impact of the war. According to the Moscow Times, gas prices in Russia soared to record highs in early September.
Ukraine’s War Against Russian Oil Proves Highly Effective
Serhii Kuzan, a former adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, told me, “Disruptions to refining capacity create fuel shortages on the domestic market, driving up diesel and gasoline prices. The resulting economic strain fuels public discontent as everyday costs rise.”
For Russia, the damage cuts deep at home and on the battlefield. Oil and gas revenues bankroll the Kremlin’s war effort, from weapons production to the inflated wages needed to lure new recruits. Any disruptions help aid Ukraine’s defense. “Ukraine’s main goal is to cut off fuel supplies to Russia’s military and reduce export revenues that fund the Kremlin’s war effort,” Kuzan said.
Across Russia, there are reports of long lines at gas stations, amid growing fuel shortages. The Russian daily Izvestia reported supply disruptions in more than ten regions but blamed them on seasonal demand and increased tourism. Other outlets pointed to “drone debris” as a factor. For the Kremlin, it is an awkward narrative: acknowledging Ukrainian drone attacks would mean admitting that the “special military operation” is not going to plan.
Volodymyr Dubovyk, director of the Center for International Studies at Odesa Mechnykov National University, told me, “Some of these may seem like mosquito bites, but taken together, with their variety of targets and frequency, they’re becoming increasingly painful.”
Ukrainian Drones Achieve What Sanctions Could Not
Following a February Oval Office clash with Zelensky, Donald Trump told him that he had “no cards” left to play. With time, Ukraine showed that it had plenty of cards to play. Ukrainian drones throughout 2025 continuously flew across Russia, shutting down Moscow airports numerous times.
Things got so bad for Russia that, ahead of the annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, China reportedly asked Kyiv to refrain from striking the capital, according to RBC-Ukraine. Even Russia’s elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg have not been spared the disruption of Ukrainian drone attacks. Facing a shortage of air defense systems, satellite imagery revealed that Russia has increasingly resorted to deploying decoys in its Far East.
By June, Kyiv continued to demonstrate its growing reach with Operation Spiderweb, launching swarms of cheap drones from cargo containers deep inside Russia, destroying numerous strategic bombers.
Throughout 2025, the long-range drone attacks targeted factories that supported the military-industrial complex and hit Russia’s energy infrastructure. “Military logistics depend heavily on fuel, and when nearby infrastructure is destroyed, units face growing shortages,” explained Kuzan.
Where sanctions have fallen short, Ukraine’s drones have delivered. “Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries are achieving what sanctions alone have not. Moscow has found ways to adapt to Western sanctions – but so far, it has no reliable defense against Ukraine’s drones,” Kuzan said.
Social Pressures Rise in Russia
By August, Kyiv had scaled its “kinetic sanctions” against the Kremlin. As Vladimir Putin bets time is on his side against Ukraine, the oil war is putting more pressure on the Kremlin. “Russians keep finding ways to live with the results of these attacks, but it costs them and creates more hurdles that they need to overcome,” Dubovyk said.
In Saratov, residents are growing frustrated as fuel supplies run dry and prices climb week after week. Officials insist the disruptions are temporary and localized, but few are convinced. Russian newspapers are increasingly addressing the fuel crisis across the country.
On September 4, Putin was forced to admit that Russia faces a gas shortage, suggesting that the country turn to coal reserves, which “will last for almost a thousand years.” Russia’s oil export revenues fell in August to a five-year low of $13.5 billion, Reuters reported, as exports declined and Urals crude traded at $56 a barrel, below the $60 price cap.
The Kremlin faces a delicate balance. Its war in Ukraine demands ever-greater funding, yet the economic pressure is growing. The central bank has done an impressive job stabilizing the economy so far, but its tools are limited. Businesses are already strained by high interest rates meant to contain inflation, and rising fuel prices add to the pressure, threatening to upset that balance.
These attacks alone may not decide the war, but they are shaping its trajectory. Kyiv has shown it can strike Russia’s economic heartland, eroding the very revenues that sustain Moscow’s war machine.
Putin often casts himself in the legacy of the Tsars, reclaiming the empire. But he would do well to remember Tsar Nicholas II in World War I, when overextended frontlines and domestic shortages made unrest at home as dangerous as the enemy abroad.