How Ukraine Won The Battle

Early Thursday morning, the last Russian troops slunk away from Snake (or Zmiinyi) Island on two speed boats—bringing an end to Moscow’s ill-fated occupation of a strategic outpost just 20 miles off the coasts of Romania and Ukraine that had become an enduring symbol of Putin’s aggression and Ukrainian resistance.

Earlier in June, a Russian general supposedly went to heroic lengths to deliver a new air defense system to the island after the civilian crew of the ship set to transport it mostly refused to go to the island, where a half-dozen Russian vessels had met their doom.

But Ukrainian batteries continued pummeling the island with newly acquired Western precision artillery, destroying yet another air defense system.

Ukraine’s ability to use GPS-guided rockets supplied by the U.S. to sustainably and accurately strike the battered Russian garrison on a tiny, rocky island largely devoid of cover seems to have been the final straw compelling Moscow to cut its losses, which by then amounted to a considerable toll of personnel, vehicles and weapons batteries.

Moscow has sought to dress up the humiliating retreat as a “mission accomplished” moment and a diplomatic gesture to Kyiv, claiming Ukraine was welcome to reoccupy the island, clear naval mines around its ports and resume commercial maritime traffic.

If that were true it would be significant, as Russia has been strangling Ukraine’s grain exports through a naval blockade, which furthermore is expected to cause famines costing thousands of lives in developing countries.

Unfortunately, there is no sign yet that Russia is actually lifting the blockade, and so the alleged “good will” gesture seems more like an attempt to shift the narrative on what was undeniably a costly defeat. After all, Moscow has characterized prior military retreats as “good will gestures” before doubling down on military efforts elsewhere.

To be fair, as Russia recently captured the symbolically important city of Severodonetsk, it could see this juncture as an opportunity to “declare victory and go home”—or at least try to, as Kyiv likely won’t stop fighting unless it gets some of its territory back. If Moscow genuinely lifts the blockade with crippling effect on Ukraine’s economy and global hunger, though, that would be a significant concession.

Unfortunately, recent Western intelligence assessments conclude that Putin still believes Russia’s military can overwhelm Ukraine through sheer endurance and massed firepower. Kyiv so far perceives Moscow’s invitation to resume commercial shipping is a propaganda and deception measure.

How Ukraine won the battle of Snake Island

Over the centuries many naval battles have been fought over the strategic island, which according to legend is the burial place of the Greek hero Achilles. Thus history was repeating itself when the Russian cruiser Moskva appeared off its coastline around 6 PM on February 24 demanding the surrender of the Ukrainian border guards stationed there.

Despite lacking anti-ship weapons, a Ukrainian guardsman famously messaged back “Russian warship, go fuck yourselves”—an episode now immortalized on a stamp issued by the Ukrainian government.

Following a withering naval bombardment backed up by Su-24 jet bombers, Russian forces seized the island, apparently capturing most of its garrison alive (contrary to early reports). At least nineteen Ukrainians from the island were freed in a prisoner exchange on March 24.

For the following month, Russia’s Snake Island outpost grew in size, largely unmolested thanks to the protective umbrella of long-range surface-to-air missiles on the Moskva stationed a short distance away. But on April 13, Ukrainian land-based Neptune missiles crippled the Moskva, causing the huge warship to sink the following day.

With Moskva out of the picture, Ukrainian TB2 Bayraktar combat drones began a series of deadly attacks, sinking a half-dozen boats and landing craft patrolling or resupplying the island, destroying multiple short-range air defense systems as well as communication and electronic warfare equipment, and even blasting a hovering Mi-8 helicopter in the middle of roping down troops.

On May 7, even Ukrainian fighters joined the attack, swooping down at high speed to blast structures on the island with large bombs. Russian sources also make unconfirmed claims of a failed Ukrainian landing attempt on the island.

Still, through May and most of June, Russia’s military doggedly continued delivering valuable Tor and Pantsir anti-aircraft systems to replace those lost on the island so as to fend off Ukrainian attacks. Russians ministry of defense made likely exaggerated claims it had downed 12 Ukrainian drones and at least 21 incoming missiles.

But in June, Ukraine received HIMARS rocket systems with a range of roughly 43-50 miles. These could sustainably land accurate strikes on Zmiinyi without exposing themselves to retaliation. Russian sources also claim Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles and powerful CAESAR truck-mounted 155-millimeter howitzer systems supplied by France contributed to the onslaught. The CAESAR has just enough range to strike the island from Ukrainian soil and has a highly precise digital fire control system.

Russia’s withdrawal from Zmiinyi is collaterally a victory for NATO, as the island has long been strategically valuable for its position near the mouth of the Danube River. Had Russia’s occupation remained uncontested, the island might not only have continuing gathering intelligence on NATO activities in Romania—site of a key U.S. missile defense base—but have potentially housed long-distance anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile batteries capable of interdicting maritime and aviation activity across Europe’s Black Sea coastline.

Russian military assets confirmed destroyed around Zmiinyi between Feb and June 2022 include:

• Four Raptor-class patrol boats
• Serna-class air-cavity landing craft DK-701
• Large rescue tug Vassily Bekh (sunk by Harpoon missile) with TOR-M air defense system onboard
• Mi-8 helicopter
• Strela-10 (SA-13) short-range air defense systems
• Pantsir-S1 (SA-22) short-range air defense system
• Three ZU-23 23-millimeter anti-aircraft guns
• Repellant-1 mobile anti-drone jamming system

Likely a fuller picture of Russian equipment losses will emerge as the island is surveyed. If the Russian withdrawal was made in haste, its possible Ukraine may recover some repairable systems it could put to use.

What next?

Ukraine may possibly station a small detachment on the island, perhaps including some low-footprint communications equipment and sensors with which to track Russian naval activity across the Black Sea. Deployment to and resupply of the island will likely be easier for Ukraine due to the much shorter distance Ukrainian vessels will need to traverse compared to Russian efforts.

However, Ukraine’s military is also probably now deeply aware of how vulnerable forces on Zmiinyi are to attack. That’s because both the island’s terrain and small size make it nearly impossible to conceal large assets, leaving them highly vulnerable to long-distance strikes like those Russia is daily pelting across mainland Ukraine, though Russia wouldn’t be able to use land-based artillery like Ukraine, other than longer-distance ballistic missiles.

Thus, Kyiv may refrain from repeating Russia’s error of dispatching so many valuable assets to defend a seemingly indefensible island. That’s even though it theoretically might look like a tempting place to deploy maritime patrol boats, drones and helicopters — or Ukraine’s burgeoning inventory of anti-ship missile batteries, which could threaten Russian naval assets from a new angle.