How Turkey’s Latest Actions Could Fatally Undermine Its Yearlong Bid For New F-16s

In a mere week, Turkey attacked the United States’ Kurdish allies in Syria, endangered U.S. troops, and again doubled down on its contentious purchase of an advanced Russian air defense system. Such actions could further buttress already significant opposition in Washington to a proposed sale of modernized F-16s to Ankara.

In October 2021, Turkey requested 80 new Block 70 F-16 Viper fighter jets and 80 modernization kits for its existing fleet. The request came just two years after it was banned from buying fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters over its contentious procurement of advanced Russian S-400 air defense missile systems.

There has been significant opposition in Congress to the sale, with those opposed invariably citing the S-400 acquisition and arguing that Turkey’s foreign policy under incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan undermines various U.S. interests.

Nevertheless, Ankara expressed optimism in recent weeks that Washington will soon greenlight the sale.

On Nov. 3, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said he believes the question of a Turkish F-16 sale will be resolved in the next month or two.

“It’s not very easy to give a clear forecast but it appears there is a high probability of the process being completed in the next month or two,” he told Turkish media.

“When this happens the F-16 problem, both the modernization and the purchase of new F-16s will be resolved.”

Following his meeting with President Joe Biden at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Bali on Nov. 15, Erdogan was also optimistic, telling reporters on his way home that Biden had assured him the issue was “in his hands”.

However, recent Turkish actions and comments could incur another backlash from Washington and jeopardize the sale.

On Nov. 13, a bomb exploded on a bustling Istanbul avenue killing six people. The U.S. promptly offered Ankara its condolences. Ankara rejected them.

Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu even equated the condolence message to “a killer being the first to show up at a crime scene,” insinuating U.S. responsibility for the heinous terror attack.

Turkey has blamed the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) for the attack, a charge that both groups strenuously deny. The YPG, the primary component of the larger Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) organization, has been the primary U.S. ally against ISIS in Syria since 2014 and lost no fewer than 11,000 male and female fighters in the battles against the group.

Using the Istanbul attack as a pretext, Turkey unleashed a series of devastating airstrikes against SDF-controlled northeast Syria and repeatedly threatened a cross-border ground operation. Aside from directly targeting U.S.-allied fighters and devastating northeast Syria’s civilian infrastructure, the strikes also put some of the estimated 900 U.S. troops still deployed in that region in danger.

“Recent air strikes in Syria directly threatened the safety of U.S. personnel who are working in Syria with local partners to defeat ISIS and maintain custody of more than ten thousand ISIS detainees,” said Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder in a Nov. 23 statement.

Turkey used F-16s for many of these strikes. U.S. Congressman Frank Pallone singled out Turkey’s use of the jets to bomb a hospital near the Syrian Kurdish border city of Kobani to reiterate his opposition to selling Ankara any new ones.

“Erdogan bombed civilian infrastructure, including a hospital. This is yet another reason why I am working to block the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey,” he tweeted. “Erdogan’s pattern of aggression shows that we cannot trust him with U.S. military equipment.”

In addition to “directly” endangering U.S. troops with U.S.-made warplanes, Turkish rhetoric again demonstrated that Ankara remains recalcitrant on the S-400 issue.

“We have no problem with the S-400,” Defense Minister Hulusi Akar declared in a Nov. 22 address to the Turkish parliament’s planning and budget committee.

“They ask where [the systems] are. The S-400 is in place and ready for use,” he added. “It has a transfer time. After that, everything will be ready in an hour. If such a threat develops in any way, we will take it and use it after deciding where our country’s air defense will be.”

Akar recalled that Turkey had first sought the U.S. Patriot missile and the European SAMP-T to fulfill its long-range air defense needs but ultimately opted for the S-400. Turkish officials have insinuated that Ankara had to buy the Russian system since its Western and NATO allies left it no other choice. This talking point has been easily disproven time and again. The U.S. also offered to sell PAC-3 Patriots to Turkey in late 2018 if it agreed to ditch the S-400 deal. Ankara refused and fatefully pushed ahead.

On Nov. 23, in response to a question about Akar’s comments, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said the U.S. stance that the Turkish S-400 is incompatible with NATO standard equipment and threatens NATO technology remains the same. The official also urged Turkey to get rid of the systems it received and warned that any new deals with the Russian defense sector would trigger additional sanctions on Ankara under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

If Turkey continues repeating these actions and declarations in the coming weeks and launches the large-scale ground invasion of northeast Syria it has threatened, opposition to the F-16 sale will further solidify, hampering the administration’s effort to win approval. Cancelation of the deal could ultimately leave the Turkish Air Force without the crucial upgrades it needs to keep its enormous F-16 fleet up-to-date for the next decade.