How The USMNT Can Win The World Cup — And Why It Won’t

The 2022 World Cup begins this Sunday, November 20, and the USMNT and its fans have reasons to be optimistic.

But can the men’s national side follow the USWNT, four-time winner of the Women’s World Cup, to take home soccer’s biggest international prize for the first time?

It’s highly unlikely, but not impossible. Here’s how the USMNT can win the World Cup – and why it won’t.

A young, exciting squad

The US roster will be one of, if not the, youngest at the finals with an average age of 25 years and 175 days. Captain Christian Pulisic, 24, will lead from the front with backup from quick, dynamic players like Yunus Musah, 19, and Brenden Aaronson, 22.

Despite the youthful makeup, there is top-level experience. Sergiño Dest, 22, has played for both FC Barcelona and AC Milan. Weston Mckennie, 24, plays for Juventus and will be one of the team’s leaders in midfield. And a player likely to be alongside him in midfield, Tyler Adams, 23, has made a bright start to life at Premier League club Leeds United.

There is belief within the squad that they can prove doubters wrong after an uncertain qualifying campaign in which the USMNT finished third, behind Mexico and Canada.

“People think ‘does the US have enough quality?’ and there’s so much talk around it. You just want to set the narrative straight, that we have a good team. Although we’re young, we can compete with some of the best teams in the world and best players in the world,” Tyler Adams told me in an April interview.

Keep Yunus Musah involved

The USMNT received a boost that could help the national team for the next decade and beyond when Musah decided to represent America last year. The Valencia player was eligible to play for Ghana, England or Italy but, like many other players, chose to represent the country of his birth.

Musah has become an important part of the starting 11 at his La Liga club Valencia and his breaks from midfield, when he runs at terrified defenders, get fans off their feet. At his best, Musah is quick, direct and capable of scoring long-range goals. For this World Cup, he may be asked to play a slightly deeper role.

He does, however, tend to drift in and out of matches. This is natural for someone still a teenager, but if the USMNT is to pull off the ultimate World Cup shock, Musah will need to shine throughout the tournament.

Luck

Soccer is a sport in which luck plays a sometimes-significant role. The ball hits the post and bounces out instead of crossing the line. The referee decides a defender got a toe to the ball instead of awarding a penalty. In a tournament scenario, there are fewer matches compared to a league campaign and a higher chance of fortune influencing a match (or matches).

The USMNT has arguably already had a slice of luck in its group draw. It was in pot two and drawn with England (pot one), Iran (pot three) and Wales (pot four). Manager Gregg Berhalter has described the group as “a slugfest”, and it is the only one of the eight finals groups where all teams are ranked in FIFA’s top 20. England is the favorite to win the group, with bookmakers fancying the USMNT for second spot.

While England is a strong team, the USMNT could have faced more fearsome opponents from pot one (Brazil, for example). England has not won for six matches and is far from unbeatable. Iran, a well-coached physical side, will be no push over but the USMNT avoided stronger teams in pot three. It was less lucky drawing Wales, against which the USMNT begins on Monday, November 21. For the USMNT to win the World Cup, it will need luck to play a part – if not in the group, then certainly in the knockout stage.

Why the USMNT won’t win – a lack of experience

For all the youthful energy the USMNT possesses, young teams do not historically win the World Cup. As The Athletic reports, in the past five finals tournaments, only Germany, in 2010, has gone to a semi-final with an average squad age younger than 25.9.

Soccer’s common wisdom suggests most in this USMNT group will reach their peak in time for the 2026 World Cup, to be played partially on home soil. The 2022 tournament may have come too soon for this roster.

The path to the final

Upsets happen in major tournaments. The USMNT finished third in the first World Cup, in 1930, and reached the quarter-finals in 2002.

In 2004, Greece pulled off the most unlikely triumph in major tournament history when it won the European Championship as a rank outsider. For World Cup inspiration, the USMNT could look to Cameroon’s run to the quarter-final in 1990 or host South Korea reaching the 2002 semi-final.

If results go the way of rankings (not always a certainty at the World Cup), the USMNT will finish second in the group behind England and play the winner of Group A, expected to be Netherlands. It is not a vintage Dutch team but 15 matches unbeaten and would be strong favorite in a Round of 16 clash with the US. An against-the-odds win there would mean a quarter-final, probably against either Argentina or reigning champion France, two of the tournament favorites.

It is worth remembering only eight different countries have won the World Cup since its inception in 1930. Underdog victories happen at the World Cup – several in a row is pushing it.

Issues in defense and attack

Defense, in particular center-back, is arguably the area where the USMNT is weakest. Cameron Carter-Vickers, Aaron Long, Tim Ream and Walker Zimmerman are all options, but none inspire great confidence against top-class attacks.

Striker is also a problem position. Josh Sargent, who has recovered from injury and scored nine goals in the second-tier English Championship for Norwich City this season, may get the nod. He will need support from the likes of Pulisic and Aaronson and the team will need them to weigh in with goals, particularly to break down the defenses of Iran and Wales in the group stage.

Teams have proved it is possible to go deep in tournaments – and even lift the trophy – with either a rock-solid defense or prolific attack. In 2004, Greece played defensive, “boring” tactics and focused on set-pieces as an attacking weapon. The team won each of its three knockout stage matches 1-0.

If the USMNT go into the knockouts of the World Cup, it will encounter teams with deeper squads, better defenses and attacks. You might get away with a leaky defense or a blunt attack, but you can’t have both to win the World Cup.