How The Ukrainian Military Strategy Stalled The Russian Offensive

When the Russian military invaded Ukraine, many projected that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours. One month later, the Ukrainian military has managed to hold back the Russians, who only hold ten percent of the country. At this early stage of the war, the Ukrainian strategies appear to have been more successful than that of the Russians. Although the exact strategies are not publicly available, reports from the war, military doctrine, and open-source imagery, provide insight into how each side planned to defeat their adversary.

At the onset of the invasion, estimates put the Russians force at approximately 120 Battalion Tactical Groups, each with 10 tanks, 30 armored personnel carrier, and a wide array of artillery. These ground forces were further augmented by air, naval, and cyber support. This invasion force is massive with the intent of rapidly sweeping through Ukraine, crushing any opposition. This strategy is not dissimilar from the “shock and awe” approach used by Coalition forces in Iraq or the German “blitzkrieg” technique from World War II. Such a strategy relies on the principle of momentum, where the offensive force continually pushes forward at a rapid pace, not allowing the defense time to regroup.

The Russian forces moved in from the north and northeast through Belarus and Russia with a plan of capturing Kyiv. If the government in Kyiv falls, the country would likely capitulate. Meanwhile, other Russian forces moved in from the east into the Donbas provinces and from the south through Crimea. Prior to the invasion, Russia had recognized the independence of the Donbas provinces and were actively supporting the separatist groups in the region. The multiple converging fronts were intended to isolate Ukrainian forces, disrupt their command structure, and force them to surrender.

In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. Without achieving and sustaining momentum, the Russian forces got bogged down. While part of this is due to an over-reliance on outdated technology, the primary reason was a staunch Ukrainian defense.

The Ukrainians, who had been preparing for this invasion since 2014, likely anticipated this invasion plan, which aligns well with Russian military doctrine. Even with advanced planning and preparation, the Ukrainian military had significantly less firepower — tanks, artillery, air support — than the invading Russian force. As such, their strategy had to limit the Russian offense while also conserving their own resources.

With the initial invasion, the Ukrainians forces focused on ensuring that the Russians invasion force could not achieve the momentum necessary to sweep through the country. They did this by targeting the lead elements of the Russian assault while also destroying bridges and other infrastructure. Additionally, Ukrainian anti-tank units used javelins and other anti-tank weapons to destroy tanks, further disrupting the assault. By disallowing the Russians from establishing momentum, the Ukrainians were able to establish a strong defensive posture that held the Russians in check.

With the Russian offensive stalled, the Ukrainians had to carefully select their targets and conserve their resources. Although the international community provide Ukraine with “lethal aid,” the Ukrainians were still lacking on artillery, armor, and aviation equipment. Each time that the Ukrainian military engaged the Russians, they put themselves in a vulnerable position, especially given counter-battery systems. These systems allow the Russians to detect incoming rounds and pinpoint the location of the Ukrainian firer, who the Russians would then engage. Given the smaller military, each equipment loss is more significant to the Ukrainians.

Regardless, the Ukrainian military had plenty of targets to choose from. The formidable Russian tank armada spent much of the last month idling on the highways. However, the Ukrainians limited their attack on the stationary Russian armor columns. The Ukrainians benefited from not destroying the tanks, which have become a liability to the Russians due to their constant need for diesel fuel. Instead, the Ukrainians shifted their focus away from these tanks, opting to destroy the targets that would have the largest effect. Of note, the infamous Bayraktar TB2 drone, which is regaled for its anti-tank capabilities, has reportedly only destroyed six armored vehicles in this conflict. Rather, the Ukrainians have used it to destroy more important targets.

One of the more critical Ukrainian objectives was to destroy the Russian air-defense systems, which were targeted through a series of artillery and drone strikes. Destroying these systems deny the Russians from achieving control of the Ukrainian air-space, hence allowing for more drone and air strikes. The Ukrainians also identified the locations of the Russian electronic warfare equipment and targeted those systems. These systems disrupted both Ukrainian communication and drone operations.

The Ukrainian military also targeted the Russian command nodes, which put the Russian forces into somewhat of a disarray. In the process of destroying these command posts, the Ukrainians killed seven Russian general officers, a large loss for the Russian forces. Further, without these command posts, the Russian military cannot synchronize their efforts, hence further stalling the offensive.

Another common target for the Ukrainians were the resupply convoys. These resupply vehicles, which are typically not armored, are softer targets than tanks, hence requiring less sophisticated weaponry to destroy. According to Oryxspioenkop.com, a website that compiles open-source images of damaged military equipment, the Ukrainian military has destroyed or captured over 500 resupply vehicles, along with two large fuel trains. Some reports indicate that the Russian military has run very low on resupply trucks given the number of Ukrainian strikes against resupply convoys. Without resupply, the Russian advance cannot move forward, since the tanks require a large amount of diesel fuel. Further, the lack of resupply is crushing to soldier morale.

The Ukrainian strategy appears to have been somewhat effective in accomplishing their two main objectives – limiting Russian gains and conserving resources. Going into the second month of this invasion, the Russians appear to be changing their strategies, moving away from multiple fronts and focusing their efforts on ‘liberating’ Donbas. By doing so, they can consolidate their forces and concentrate their attack on a single region. The Ukrainians in turn will have to adjust their strategies for this evolving war.