How The Sixers Could Land Another Star In 2022 NBA Free Agency

Even after acquiring James Harden in a blockbuster deal at the NBA trade deadline, the Philadelphia 76ers might not be done star-hunting just yet.

On Monday, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst hinted that Sixers team president Daryl Morey may be eyeing another star this offseason to slot alongside Harden and two-time MVP runner-up Joel Embiid:

“Philly has dreams and plans, or Daryl Morey does. A key factor here is that they have Tobias Harris, who would have value in a possible trade. And they have Tyrese Maxey, who would have value in a possible trade. And you would need a player, potentially near the end of his contract, to come and say, ‘I would like to go play in Philadelphia.’ Is that something that could happen? Maybe. We’ll see. I know that Philly and Daryl are gonna try to make it happen.”

Windhorst didn’t name any specific targets whom the Sixers could have in mind. But he might have been talking about Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

In March, former NBA player Andrew Bogut said he had heard “a pretty big rumor… from some people that are pretty close to the situation” that Beal was “trying to get to Philadelphia in the offseason to team up with Harden and Embiid” (h/t Dan Feldman of Pro Basketball Talk). Beal is eligible to sign a five-year, $247.7 million max contract with the Wizards or a four-year, $183.6 million max deal with any other team.

Whether the Sixers are eyeing Beal, Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine or a player who’s currently under contract for the 2022-23 season, they’d have two main ways to get another star this offseason. Both depend on Harden’s willingness to decline his $47.4 million player option for next season and take a smaller salary in exchange for locking up more guaranteed long-term money.

The Cap Space Route

The most recent projection for the 2022-23 salary cap is $122 million. That means a max contract for someone with less than seven years of NBA experience will start at $30.5 million, a max deal for someone with between 7-9 years of experience will start at $36.6 million, and a max deal for someone with 10 or more years of experience will start at $42.7 million.

The Sixers currently have 11 players under contract for next season at just under $96.1 million combined. That does not include Danny Green, whom the Sixers figure to waive in the wake of the torn ACL and LCL that he suffered in their Game 6 loss to the Miami Heat. (His $10 million salary is fully nonguaranteed until July 1.)

To create enough cap space to sign Beal to a max deal outright, the Sixers could have no more than $79.3 million on their books. That means they’d need to clear at least $16.8 million more in salary, and that’s before factoring in Harden. They’d thus have to trade Tobias Harris, who’s owed $37.6 million in 2022-23 and $39.3 million the following season.

If the Sixers were able to trade Harris without taking any salary back, they’d have $58.4 million committed to 10 players. That would leave them with roughly $63.6 million in cap space to split between Harden and Beal.

The Sixers could free up even more space by salary-dumping Furkan Korkmaz ($5 million), Matisse Thybulle ($4.4 million) or Georges Niang ($3.5 million), but they won’t be able to offer max contracts to both Beal and Harden either way. There are a few more potential hurdles to consider here, too.

No team is currently projected to have enough cap space this offseason to absorb Harris’ salary without sending a smaller contract back in return. It’s also unclear how the Sixers could entice a team to take on the two years and $76.8 million remaining on Harris’ deal, and whether whomever they planned to sign would justify the cost of offloading him.

The Sixers are limited in which picks they can trade due to the Stepien Rule, which prevents teams from going consecutive drafts without a first-round pick. They already owe either a 2022 or 2023 first-rounder and a lightly protected 2027 first-rounder to the Brooklyn Nets as well as a lightly protected 2025 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder, so they can’t trade any other first-rounders until the night of this year’s draft.

Even if the Sixers kept rising star Tyrese Maxey out of a Harris trade, they’d likely be paper-thin outside of their top four. They’d have only the $5.3 million room mid-level exception and veteran minimum contracts to round out the rest of their roster, which could make them too top-heavy to be one of the leading contenders for next year’s title.

The Sign-And-Trade Route

Rather than carve out enough cap space to sign Beal or another star to a max contract outright, the Sixers might prefer to pursue a sign-and-trade instead. That would enable them to remain over the salary cap and potentially maintain access to both the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($10.3 million) and bi-annual exception ($4.1 million) to spend on their supporting cast.

At most, the Sixers could take back 125 percent of however much salary they shipped out in a sign-and-trade, plus $100,000. If they traded Harris on his own, they’d be allowed to take back just north of $47 million in salary, which would be more than enough to squeeze in a max deal for Beal or another star.

However, teams that receive a player in a sign-and-trade are prohibited from crossing the luxury-tax apron at any point that season. Next year’s tax apron is projected to land just under $155.7 million, which will be the key number for the Sixers’ offseason plans.

If Harden picked up his $47.4 million player option, the Sixers would have $106.8 million in salary on their books even if they waive Green and salary-dump Harris without taking any contracts in return. They’d have less than $48.9 million of wiggle room before hitting the apron, so they couldn’t give Beal his full max salary ($42.7 million) and have access to the full NTMLE.

Instead, the Sixers should encourage Harden to decline his player option and sign a longer-term contract with a smaller starting salary in 2022-23. If his new contract began at $38 million, they would have just enough room to give Beal his full max, use both the NTMLE and bi-annual exception and round out their roster with one player on a minimum contract. (They’d be roughly $320,000 under the apron after all of that.)

The Nets could throw a wrench into that plan by deferring the Sixers’ 2022 first-round pick until 2023, but they must make that decision by June 1. That will give the Sixers roughly three weeks either to trade the pick away (in a Harris salary-dump or elsewhere) or spend it on a draft-and-stash player whom they don’t plan on rostering next season.

Beyond that, it all comes down to how much less than $47.4 million that Harden is willing to earn next season, and whether the Sixers can find a team that’s open to taking on Harris’ contract.

Considering how many obstacles they’d have to overcome, the Sixers aren’t likely to add another star this offseason. They might be better off keeping Harris (and whatever they’d have to give up to dump him) and then spending their NTMLE and bi-annual exception to round out their roster.

But if Harden is willing to play ball by taking a smaller salary next season, Morey and the Sixers might have one final ace up their sleeve in free agency.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.