Dodgers manager Dave Roberts congratulates the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber after the National League defeated the American League to win the MLB All-Star Game in July. (Photo by Jamie Squire)
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It’s street tacos vs. cheese steaks. It’s West-Coast glitz vs. East-Coast grit. And it’s Shohei vs. Schwarbombs.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in the best-of-five NLDS starting on Saturday in Philly in what could be an epic battle of the behemoths.
One behemoth is the defending-champ Dodgers — with a glittering cast of stars — who just gave out a beat-down to the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild-Card Series. The other is the Phillies, who reeled off 96 wins (three more than the Dodgers) and won four of six games against L.A. this season.
So yes, this is a toughie to dissect but let’s give it a go:
Starting Lineup
The top third of the Phillies’ lineup (Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper) is fierce. But the Dodgers’ top-of-the-order trifecta (Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman) is fiercer.
The Phillies got power but the Dodgers have more the power, leading the National League with 244 home runs this season; that’s 32 more than the Phils hit. The Phillies have two players with 20 or more homers; the Dodgers have five.
And here’s what’s really scary about the Dodgers’ lineup: They have six everyday players with a slugging percentage of .450 or higher; the Phils only have three.
Advantage Dodgers.
Starting pitching
The Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez will get the baseball in game one. Ranger Suarez and Jesús Luzardo will start the next two games but it’s not known who will pitch what game. No matter the order, it’s a formidable top-3 for the Phils but not untouchable — not what the Dodgers can roll out there.
Cristopher Sánchez will start game one for the Phillies in the NLDS. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
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Los Angeles will hand the ball to Ohtani in game one, with zero pitch-count restrictions on him. Blake Snell and Yoshinubu Yamamota will likely get the next two games. Ohtani, Snell and Yamamota have combined for a 2.52 ERA in 282 innings pitched this year. And in the month of September, the trio has been dominant, combining for a microscopic 0.98 ERA.
Advantage Dodgers.
Bullpen
Just as the Death Star had one lone weakness, the Dodgers have one, too… the bullpen, which has been teetering the past couple months.
Tanner Scott (4.74 ERA, 10 blown saves) is barely clinging to the closer’s role. The only consistent Dodger reliever all season has been lefty Alex Vesia, but here’s what the Phillies did to him in April:
The Dodgers will use surplus starters (Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow and Emmett Sheehan) to reinforce the ‘pen. But that influx of arms could add a state of confusion to the beleaguered unit.
Meanwhile, the Phillies’ relief corp has stabilized since acquiring closer Jhoan Duran and set-up man David Robertson a couple months ago. And this is huge: Going into the NLDS, every Phillie reliever knows his role.
Advantage Phillies.
Bench
The Dodgers have a solid batch of reserves led by Miguel Rojas and Kiké Hernández. But the Phillies have exactly what you want on your bench — speed (Edmundo Sosa), power (Nick Castellanos) and versatility (Otto Kemp and Weston Wilson). And when Sosa and Castellanos get the start against Snell, the Phils will slide Bryson Stott and Max Kepler onto the pine.
Advantage Phillies.
Managers
Only one man in this series has led his team to the World Series trophy, and that’s Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, who’s actually won two.
But Phillies manager Rob Thomson — a never-show-panic force in the dugout — lost his ace in Wheeler for the season and also lost Harper and Turner to extended IL stints, yet he still got the Phils to capture the NL East crown.
Even.
Final thoughts…
On paper, it looks like the Dodgers’ series to win, but a baseball game is often decided on the margins — running up the opposing pitcher’s pitch count, taking the extra base, playing clean defense and getting a big timely hit. It’s those little things the Phillies must do to beat such a fearsome team.
The Phillies also have an emotional cause this postseason: Wheeler, whose season ended with a scary injury — blood clots in his throwing arm. So the team could use the extra motivation to play its best baseball of the season — to win it for Wheels.
But at this point, the defending champions are the team to pick until they are beaten — and that probably won’t happen here.
Dodgers in five.