How The Pacers Pull Off Late-Game Comebacks

With 1:06 left in the fourth quarter, Donovan Mitchell sprayed a pass to his trusty marksman Max Strus for an open three, bang. The Cleveland Cavaliers, up seven, seemed to be in the driver’s seat to a Game 2 victory and a 1-1 series tie.

However, the Indiana Pacers had something to say about that. They clawed their way back and emerged with an improbable 120-119 victory. After having nearly a 100% expected chance at victory, the Cavaliers now face an 0-2 deficit heading to Indiana.

If this feels like Déjà vu, that’s because it is. Just last week, the Pacers returned from down seven with 40 seconds left to close out their first round series against the Milwaukee Bucks.

How can one team be so lucky? Did Reggie Miller partake in some sort of basketball witchcraft and bestow the team locker room with his come-from-behind powers?

While the Pacers have had some luck in these situations (better to be lucky than good, after all), what they are doing right now is the byproduct of their breathtaking star guard and their season-long pursuit for ultimate attention to detail.

Rick Carlisle is proving how great of a coach he is

Measuring the impact of coaches on games can be tricky because so much of what happens in games is a result of the players on the floor reading and reacting to what is being thrown at them. That is why it is always useful to pay attention to how teams fare coming out of timeouts since that is one of the few times where coaches have (nearly) complete control of what is happening on the court.

After Pascal Siakam cut the lead to a three-point game with 28 seconds left, the Cavaliers were forced into a timeout so that they could bring Donovan Mitchell (who put together a masterful performance) back into the game.

Here is what happened when the game returned from intermission (skip to the 15-second mark of the video):

If you don’t feel like watching, basically, what happened is the Pacers defended the Cavaliers’ sideline out-of-bounds play (often referred to as a SLOB), denying all their ball handlers a chance at the rock, and Andrew Nembhard took advantage of Ty Jerome’s poor sealing to swim around him and intercept the inbounds pass.

If you’re catching our drift, the Pacers did something similar on a SLOB play against the Bucks. With 33 seconds left, AJ Green inbounded the ball to Gary Trent Jr., who was quickly swarmed by two Pacers — desperately looking for a release valve — Trent threw it back to Green. This would usually be a wise idea, but unfortunately for Green, Nembhard made an astute rotation to take away the mom pass and came away with…yet another steal (sidenote: the Pacers did something similar to this late in Game 1 against the Cavaliers, but you get the point).

In isolation, these two plays seem like a coincidence. However, zoom out, and you will realize this is part of a season-long trend. On the season, the Pacers have the second-lowest defensive rating on plays coming after timeouts (per PBP Stats).

The only one ahead of them is the Houston Rockets – the team with the fourth-best regular season defense in the NBA (the Pacers were 13th). So, what the Pacers are doing is arguably even more impressive because they don’t boast the personnel and the athleticism that the Rockets tout.

Carlisle was the one who once famously said, “Being historically great on offense is fun, but even dating a pretty girl gets boring after a while if she can’t guard anybody.” And now, he’s transformed this once turnstile unit into one that can hold its own with one of the greatest offenses ever assembled.

After timeout defense is something that comes down to coaching and execution. All season long, the Pacers have used their time between plays to put together a strategy (whether that be heavy ball denial, trapping, or a creative zone, etc.) to counter what the other team is trying to do. No remaining team maximizes these situations like Carlisle and his staff, and now it is yielding them sweet dividends.

Tyrese Haliburton is one of the clutchest players in the game

At the end of the day, you still need talent to win. A coach can do everything perfectly, but it means nothing if his players can’t hit shots. And Carlisle is in good hands in clutch situations with his All-NBA point guard, Tyrese Haliburton. In both of the games we’ve pinpointed, Haliburton was the one to put the final nail in the coffin with a go-ahead bucket.

So often, names like Jalen Brunson, Damian Lillard, and DeMar DeRozan come up when we are discussing the best closers in the sport. As recently as this year, Haliburton did not even garner a single vote for the Clutch Player of the Year Award. This needs to change. Haliburton is one of the premier players in the association with the ball in his hands down the stretch.

Until that day comes, Haliburton and his trusted general Carlisle will gladly take the key playoff wins his clutch gene is affording their beloved Pacers team.