How The No. 23 Pick Affects The Sixers’ 2022 Offseason Outlook

The Philadelphia 76ers will officially have the No. 23 pick in the 2022 NBA draft, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

The Sixers traded their unprotected 2022 first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets in their blockbuster deal for James Harden at the trade deadline. However, the Nets were allowed to defer that pick and take the Sixers’ unprotected 2023 first-rounder instead.

The Nets elected to do exactly that Wednesday, as the upside far outweighs the downside for them. The worst-case scenario is that the pick falls a few spots in the 2023 draft, but they could wind up with a high lottery pick if catastrophe befalls the Sixers next season.

Now that the Sixers know they’ll have their first-round pick in this year’s draft, they need to figure out how it factors into their overall offseason plan.

The Sixers currently have 11 players under contract for a combined $96.1 million next season. The cap hit for the No. 23 pick will be roughly $2.5 million (120 percent of the $2.1 million rookie-scale allotment for that pick), so they’d have $98.6 million committed to 12 players if they use the pick on someone whom they roster next season (i.e., not a draft-and-stash player).

The Sixers figure to be well over the projected $122 million salary cap for next season if they’re able to retain James Harden this offseason. The bigger concerns for them will be the $149 million luxury-tax threshold and $155.7 million apron, the latter of which will dictate which salary-cap exceptions they’re able to use.

If the Sixers plan to spend either the $10.3 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception or the $4.1 bi-annual exception, they won’t be allowed to cross the apron at any point from July 1 until June 30, 2023. The same is true if they receive a player in a sign-and-trade. If they do cross the apron, they’ll be limited to only the $6.4 million taxpayer MLE and veteran minimum contracts, which will cost roughly $1.8 million for cap and tax purposes.

As with everything else this offseason, the Sixers’ decision-making matrix starts with Harden’s next contract. If he picks up his $47.4 million player option, they’d have $143.4 million committed to 12 players, which would leave them only $12.2 million below the apron with three roster spots to fill. They wouldn’t have enough room under the apron to have the full NTMLE and the bi-annual exception, so the $2.5 million cap hit for the No. 23 overall pick wouldn’t change much about how else they could build out their roster.

If Harden does opt out and re-sign for less, though—which appears to be a distinct possibility for now—the Sixers might have trickier math to navigate with the No. 23 pick.

With their 11 players currently under contract and the No. 23 pick, the Sixers would have $98.6 million in salaries on their books before Harden re-signs. From there, they’ll have to work backwards to figure out how much he can earn next year before they’d lose access to the NTMLE and bi-annual exception by crossing the apron.

They’d have $113 million tied up on 14 roster spots if they spent the full NTMLE on one player and the full bi-annual exception on another. The most Harden could earn next season without pushing the Sixers over the apron is roughly $42.6 million, although they’d likely prefer to give themselves a bit more wiggle room in case they need to pull off a midseason trade.

If Harden is willing to take a starting salary between $40-42 million next season—his max salary as a free agent is $46.5 million—the Sixers would have enough room under the apron to use the No. 23 pick and spend the full NTMLE and bi-annual exeption. If he won’t settle for anything less than $43 million, the $700,000 difference between the cap hit for the No. 23 pick and a minimum contract might convince them to trade the pick or use it on a draft-and-stash player, which would remove that cap hit from their books.

The offseason calendar is working against the Sixers in that regard, though. The draft is on June 23, while Harden has until June 29 to decide whether to pick up his $47.4 million player option. If he does opt out, the Sixers can’t officially agree to terms with him on a new contract until 6 p.m. on June 30.

In other words, they might be flying somewhat blind on draft night regarding Harden’s contractual intentions.

The Sixers’ top priority between now and June 23 should be settling on a total number of years and dollars that they’re willing to commit to Harden. If they can reach an agreement with Harden, he should empower team president Daryl Morey to structure the ensuing contract however he sees fit to build the best supporting cast.

If the Sixers remain unsure of Harden’s intentions when draft night rolls around, they’ll have a difficult decision to make. If they spend the pick with the intention of rostering that player next season, it will cost them more than $700,000 in financial flexibility compared to a veteran minimum contract.

Between Jaden Springer, Isaiah Joe and Charles Bassey, the Sixers already have a handful of young players who barely cracked head coach Doc Rivers’ rotation this past season. Unless they’re expecting bigger contributions out of that trio next year or plan to spend the No. 23 pick on an older, more NBA-ready prospect, they’ll have to ask themselves whether they can commit a fourth roster spot to a developmental player.

Alternatively, the Sixers could use the pick as a sweetener in a trade. Since they already owe their unprotected 2023 first-round pick to the Nets, the Stepien Rule prevents them from trading this year’s pick ahead of time. However, they could agree in principle to a trade beforehand, make the pick on another team’s behalf and then officially complete the deal afterward.

The hit rate on picks in the 20s is relatively low, but the reward is invaluable when a team does find a keeper in that range. (See: Maxey, Tyrese.) Having a productive rotation player locked in on an inexpensive deal for his first four NBA seasons can help teams balance their books and avoid dipping too far into luxury-tax territory.

The Sixers’ front office and scouting staff now have the next three weeks to decide upon the best use of the No. 23 pick. They might elect to see how the board falls before making a decision either way, but they’ll need to get a general sense of the pick’s value—and, ideally, the structure of Harden’s next contract—between now and then.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.