How Quentin Grimes And The New York Knicks Can Bounce Back In The Playoffs

Game one of a playoff series can feel like the lever that shifts balance to an immovable degree. The famed momentum, talking points and history (more than 75 percent of teams that win game one end up winning the series) indicate that, yes indeed, to the victor goes the spoils of a series victory.

That is not always the case. A single game can mark a completely different attitude toward who will win a series. The Los Angeles Clippers won the first game against the Phoenix Suns before getting bludgeoned in five games. The Golden State Warriors found themselves down two games to the Sacramento Kings before ferociously coming back to win in seven.

The Knicks are nowhere near a worst case scenario situation but there are a few key factors that will need to be solved in order for them to have a shot to come back in this series.

Turnovers

The Knicks came into the series against the Miami Heat with the worst turnover percentage in the NBA during the playoffs (of the eight teams still remaining). That stat may be startling to some considering the Knicks ranked 5th in the statistic during the regular season. The first round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers got sloppy at times with uncharacteristic turnovers from players like Immanuel Quickley and Jalen Brunson. Josh Hart and Julius Randle have been culpable of having butter fingers as both have increased their turnover percentage to numbers over 15 percent. Hart, one of the three or four most important players to the Knicks winning in the first round, has the worst turnover percentage left of non-bigs in the playoffs who have a usage rating under 20 percent. He was even saved of a possible turnover in the 4th quarter Sunday night:

The Knicks were in the bottom of the league at creating turnovers but that flipped on its head in the previous series. That might be a bit tougher against a Miami Heat team that seems more poised in the playoffs, especially led by a player of Jimmy Butler’s caliber. He is the only player currently in the playoffs that has over a 30 usage rating and less than a nine percent turnover rate (Anthony Edwards is number one on that list).

It’ll be important for the Knicks to close the gap a bit in this department. They may not be able to replicate the success they had in the regular season, but it’ll be important for them not to lose the battle by such a large margin.

3-point Shooting

This was obvious to everyone as the game was occurring. The Heat were willing to let it rip from deep early on as they took a whopping 16 3-pointers in the first 12 minutes before settling down by taking a total of 23 for the rest of the game. They weren’t necessarily effective at first— they were only able to knock down four of the looks— but the willingness allowed the team to normalize to a respectable 33 percent figure.

Obviously it was a key feature in them beating the Milwaukee Bucks in the previous series, but the hot shooting wasn’t evident from the start of this one. It wasn’t the accelerant to a blazing offensive showcase, but it certainly didn’t hinder a putrid effort.

The focus shouldn’t be on the Heat for how the 3-point shooting in this game went— it should be on the Knicks. New York shot a measly 21 percent on their looks from three, which is a figure that would make even Michael Kidd-Gilchrist blush. The types of looks are where the Knicks should have some hope.

They had 16 shots from 3-point range that were deemed wide open by NBA Advanced Stats, but were only able to drain four of them. The Heat? They had 18 of those looks and were able to drill half of them. Lots of factors play into this such as who is taking the shots, the time in the shot clock, etc. Regardless, it should be an area that the Knicks improve upon moving forward.

In order for them to take advantage of those looks it would be smart to put Quentin Grimes back in the starting lineup. He is easily the most respected shooter on the Knicks and with the Heat utilizing a wall on defense to defend the paint the Knicks should be able to burst free for a couple of easy looks. New York could use that boost since Grimes sank more than 44 percent of those wide open looks during the regular season.

Transition

These should be the easy buckets, but the Knicks bungled a few opportunities. They took advantage early with one of the best passes that RJ Barrett has thrown:

But that was pretty much the peak for the Knicks in this regard. The Heat did a great job of getting back and New York failed to take advantage of the select times they had to get out and run. They were -.6 per one hundred possessions on the playtype, which is pretty rough when you compare that to the 4.3 number that the Heat posted. The Knicks were the 2nd best team in this stat during the regular season so it is atypical of them to be this porous in the transition game. Look for that to change in game two, especially if the Knicks are able to cause a few more turnovers.