How NYCFC’s Play Suffers From Second-Class Status At Yankee Stadium

A range of explanations have been given for New York City FC’s sudden and severe dip in form, which continued in Wednesday night’s 1-1 draw against FC Cincinnati. And it’s fair to concede the defending MLS Cup Champions have been dealing with more than their share of challenges.

Widely acclaimed manager Ronny Deila departed in June for greener pastures at Belgian giants Standard Liege. Reigning MLS Golden Boot champion Valentin Castellanos followed suit in July for a loan to Girona in Spain’s top flight. And those that remain have had a long and arduous campaign that included a run to the Concacaf Champions League semifinals and the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals.

But if you’ve tracked NYCFC closely the last tow seasons, there’s another reason this stretch of one win in nine shouldn’t be entirely surprising: Because City have not played a single one of those nine at Yankee Stadium. And they’re just not the same team outside The Bronx.

City’s status as secondary tenant to Major League Baseball’s New York Yankees has always been less than ideal, but it’s come into more extreme focus under pandemic- and labor-related scheduling crunches.

Since the 2021 season began, City has played only 18 of its 32 home matches at their preferred home. The remaining 14 fixtures were moved to Red Bull Arena in Northern New Jersey or Citi Field in Queens to give priority to the Yankees or other previously scheduled stadium events.

Over that stretch, the numbers City have posted in home games are much different depending on where such home games are played:

NYCFC at Yankee Stadium vs. Other ‘Home’ Games

^{(Since start of 2021 season. Expected goals data from StatsBomb)}

Yankee Stadium

• Record: 12W, 4D, 2L
• Goal Difference: +39
• Expected Goal Difference: +26.4

Other Venues

• Record: 6W, 4D, 4L
• Goal Difference: +2
• Expected Goal Difference: +12.7*

^{*Excludes data from Wednesday’s draw against Cincinnati}

The average home field advantage in MLS is one of the largest in the soccer world, with about a 47% home win rate this season. (About a quarter of games finish as draws.) And City might have one of the more extreme home-field edges when they don’t have to go searching for an alternative venue.

The Yankee Stadium pitch — which is officially 110 x 70 yards and which some claim is smaller — is the division’s smallest, and its layout to a seating bowl designed for baseball can feel disorienting. It’s also more easily reachable by mass transit than either Citi Field or in particular Red Bull Arena for the core of NYCFC’s fanbase, which means the atmosphere at home away from home just isn’t the same.

That’s not to say the Cityzens don’t enjoy any home edge elsewhere. Their roughly 43% combined win percentage at Citi Field and Red Bull Arena is only a few points shy of the league average and well better than their 28% away win percentage. Their 1.57 points per game in those games is not far off the 2022 league average of 1.66 points per match earned by home teams.

Even so, it’s a big enough margin to turn a championship-level performer one of fringe playoff contender quality. Throw in coaching and roster turnover, and NYCFC’s sudden drought begins to make a lot of sense.

This isn’t to say don’t worry, things will get better this season. City have only one more scheduled Yankee Stadium match this season, and staging home playoff games there looks doubtful because of the Yankees’ own postseason likelihood. And their recent slide is clearly not only about venues. It’s just another factor turning a bad reversal of fortune into a historic one for a title-defending squad.

In the long term, it’s just another reason NYCFC needs a permanent home as soon as possible. As long as they play in Yankee Stadium’s compact confines, they’ll be forced to build a squad and a tactical plan that suits them. And that probably puts them at a disadvantage when they travel.

You can see that even in their march to the 2021 MLS Cup, in which they played three of their four playoff games on the road. Yes, City lifted the trophy at the end. They also saw two of those three away matches decided on penalties after playing to a tie over 120 minutes. They won the third on a very late goal against a Philadelphia Union side had to place six starters and several more reserves into Covid-19 health and safety protocols.