How Much Money Could Sliding Down The Board Cost?

The 2025 NHL Draft in Los Angeles starts tonight at 7pm ET with the New York Islanders selecting this year’s No. 1 overall pick. For top prospects, it is a moment of lifelong dreams fulfilled. But for others, the night can turn costly, not just emotionally, but financially. Each pick a player slides down the board can mean a smaller signing bonus, a lower rookie salary, and in some cases, millions left on the table. So just how expensive is a draft-day slide in the NHL?

Mock NHL Draft Predictions Show Uncertainty

Various hockey analysts have made their NHL mock draft predictions and the unanimous No.1 overall pick is Matthew Schaefer. The 6’2″, 183-pound defenseman from the Erie Otters in the OHL has been praised for his skating, hockey IQ, and offensive upside despite a season-ending collarbone injury at the 2025 World Juniors. He is widely projected to develop into a top-pairing NHL defenseman.

While Matthew Schaefer remains the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, the rest of the first round is shaping up to be anything but predictable. With each pick down the draft there is increasing uncertainty. Most analysts agree that Michael Misa, C, will be the No. 2 overall selection, but from pick No. 3 onward, mock drafts diverge sharply. An aggregation of mocks from Bob McKenzie (TSN), Sam Cosentino (Sportsnet), Adam Kimelman (NHL.com), Mike Morreale (NHL.com), Rachel Doerrie (ESPN), and Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) reveals just how volatile the projections are: 39 different players were mentioned as potential first-rounders, and only 27 appeared across all six lists.

The disparities are striking. For example, Jack Nesbitt, who currently plays center for the OHL’s Windsor Spitfires, is projected to go as high as No. 12 and as low as No. 26. Even the Swedish superstar prospect Anton Frondell has projections to be drafted as high No. 2 or low as No. 5. These dramatic swings have real implications in terms of future earnings potential for athletes.

How NHL Draft Position Dictates Dollars

In the NFL Draft earlier this year, Shedeur Sanders made headlines as he lost millions of dollars in compensation as he slid from a projected first-round draft pick to a fifth-round draft pick. As in the NFL, a player’s slot in the NHL draft can affect player compensation. However, the NHL rookie compensation structure is less lucrative, and therefore swings are less volatile, compared to the NFL.

Players selected in the first round all sign standardized entry-level contracts (ELCs), but there is room for disparity within those deals. All ELCs cap base salaries at $975,000, but the real financial levers come from signing bonuses and performance incentives. Top picks can command the maximum bonus packages, pushing their total annual earnings toward $4 million. That includes up to $97,500 in annual signing bonuses and additional performance bonuses based on hitting statistical milestones or earning end-of-season awards.

But that ceiling quickly drops. Slide just a few spots, and the bonuses often slide with you. Later first-rounders frequently settle for less in bonus structures, or in some cases, none at all. The further down the board a player falls, the more likely they are to sign contracts with lower guaranteed pay. The NHL league minimum is $775,000. However, lower draft picks tend to spend additional time in the minors, where salaries are a fraction of NHL pay. Add in the lost exposure, endorsement potential, and team leverage, and the cost of a draft-day slide can stretch well into seven figures over the life of a rookie deal.

The Hidden Cost of Sliding in the NHL Draft

Ultimately, while all first-round NHL draft picks sign entry-level contracts governed by the same basic rules, the financial reality can vary dramatically based on draft position. Sliding even a few spots can mean smaller signing bonuses, reduced performance incentives, and a slower path to full-time NHL earnings. In a draft class where projections vary wildly and no two mock drafts agree beyond the top few picks, uncertainty is more than theoretical; it is financial.