How Long Can The Sixers Afford To Wait On A James Harden Trade?

When James Harden unexpectedly picked up his $35.6 million player option on Thursday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported it was “expected that Harden has played his last game” for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Three days later, he slightly backtracked on SportsCenter. He said it was “more than conceivable” that Harden will still be on the Sixers heading into training camp, as team president Daryl Morey’s “track record” is “not just giving away an asset.”

“The Sixers are not afraid to let it be known that they don’t think necessarily it’s over with James Harden,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst added on the Hoop Collective podcast. “That maybe everybody was just a little bit in their feelings and a little bit fired up about the state of the negotiations on Thursday, and Harden very angrily picked up his option, that it may not be over.”

The real question is how long the Sixers are willing to maintain that stance, particularly if Harden is still on their roster heading into training camp.

For now, they’re likely conveying that message to maintain leverage in trade talks with other teams. If suitors believe Harden isn’t willing to play out the final year of his contract in Philadelphia, they might be inclined to offer less in negotiations.

That appears to be what’s playing out so far. Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports reported Friday that the Los Angeles Clippers—Harden’s preferred destination, according to multiple reports—were “expected to show resistance in including any prized young player, such as Terance Mann or Bones Hyland.” Windhorst said Kawhi Leonard and Paul George aren’t on the table, either, as the Clippers are hoping to create a Big Three with those two and Harden.

The Clippers do have plenty of medium-sized contracts to make the deal work from a salary-matching perspective, including Norman Powell ($18.0 million), Marcus Morris ($17.1 million), Nicolas Batum ($11.7 million) and Robert Covington ($11.7 million). K.J. Martin, whom the Clippers agreed to acquire for two second-round picks, would also fit into the Sixers’ $2.4 million traded player exception from the Matisse Thybulle deal back in February. He might be a way to bridge the gap between the two teams if the Clippers aren’t willing to offer Mann or Hyland.

There are likely three sticking points in the Harden trade talks at the moment: Whether the Clippers would be willing to include any of their young players, which salary-filler contracts they’re sending back and how much (if any) draft compensation they’d offer as well.

The Clippers already owe their unprotected 2024 and 2026 first-round picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder from the George trade in 2019, along with a 2025 first-round pick swap. That means they could offer the Sixers two unprotected first-round picks (2028 and 2030) and/or two pick swaps (2027 and 2029) if so inclined. They’ve also already traded away four of their next five second-round picks, although they do have their 2029 and 2030 second-rounders, along with a handful from other teams over the next few years.

Between their draft picks and salary filler, the Clippers should have enough assets to acquire Harden. But given the stakes of this trade for the Sixers—if they whiff on the return, it could raise questions about Joel Embiid’s long-term future in Philly—it’s understandable why they’re holding out for a haul.

Still, Harden’s past history should give them second thoughts about allowing this to drag out for too long.

Back in 2020, Harden “indicated to the Houston Rockets before training camp that he would be open to a trade,” according to Wojnarowski and Tim MacMahon. He then missed the start of training camp due to the league’s health-and-safety protocols amidst the Covid-19 pandemic because he was out partying in Las Vegas. Upon his return, he had “multiple verbal confrontations with teammates in practice,” including one in which he threw a basketball at forward Jae’Sean Tate, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.

Harden started the 2020-21 campaign with three straight 30-plus-point outings, but the wheels quickly fell off from there. One day after a particularly apathetic performance against the Los Angeles Lakers in mid-January—after which he told reporters the situation was “crazy” and “something that I don’t think can be fixed”—the Rockets shipped him to the Brooklyn Nets in a four-team trade that netted them four first-round picks and four first-round pick swaps.

By virtue of picking up his player option, Harden is now under contract with the Sixers for the 2023-24 season. But if the Clippers or another team won’t meet their asking price for him, do the Sixers dare a repeat of Harden’s disastrous final days in Houston? Or, more recently, Ben Simmons’ half-season absence following his own trade request in 2021?

Even if the Sixers did hold firm and Harden shows up to training camp on time, it’s fair to wonder how engaged he’d be. In mid-May, Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported Harden wanted to land on a team that gave him “the basketball freedom” to “be himself,” which implies that he was unhappy with the sacrifices he made last season while playing alongside Embiid.

According to longtime NBA insider Marc Stein, Harden reportedly “came away from his introductory meeting” with new Sixers head coach Nick Nurse “intrigued by Nurse’s vision.” Kelly Iko of The Athletic added that Harden was “pretty on board with everything” Nurse presented “in terms of trying new ways to optimize him, trying new ways to revamp or retool” the Sixers’ offense.

However, acrimony over his contract negotiations could factor into his willingness to play the good soldier for another year. Citing sources close to Harden, Sam Amick of The Athletic reported he was “extremely upset at the way in which the Sixers handled his possible free agency and has made his dissatisfaction clear to the organization.”

“A player of Harden’s caliber could typically expect to have some clarity about the incumbent franchise’s intentions long before that time arrives,” Amick added. “But in recent weeks and days, sources say, all indications on Harden’s side pointed to the Sixers forcing him to test the market before they would make an offer of any kind.”

The Sixers technically weren’t allowed to begin negotiating with Harden before 6 p.m. ET on June 30. According to multiple reports, they wanted to play by those rules—even though other teams frequently break them—because the NBA punished them for tampering with P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. ahead of free agency last year.

When Harden forced his way out of Houston, he still had nearly two full years left on his contract. This time around, he’s set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, as he isn’t eligible to sign a contract extension due to the length of his current deal.

If Harden allows his frustration to get the best of him and goes on a scorched-earth campaign to force his way out of Philly, there’s no guarantee that other teams will be lining up to pay him a big-money, long-term deal in 2024. At that point, he’ll have a well-established pattern of behavior when things go south that could make any team queasy.

But if Embiid’s patience begins to wear thin with this circus act, the Sixers might be facing a lose-lose situation at some point. Either they take unequal value back for Harden in a trade, or they risk having the face of their franchise and the NBA’s reigning MVP perhaps reexamine his own long-term future in Philadelphia.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.